000 AXNT20 KNHC 140549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning has expired. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 7N12W to 7N16W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N26W 5N37W 7N49W to 6N54W. A surface trough extends from 13N55W to inland over South America near 6N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 4N-10N between 42W-50W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 150/180 nm either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 13W-38W and within 90 nm of a line from 9N50W to 12N57W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A remnant stationary front remains in the southwest Gulf extending from a 1013 mb low near 20N94W northeast along 23N90W then east to 24N85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm north and west of the front and south of the low to the coast of Mexico between 93W-95W. A broad upper ridge covers the Gulf anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf westerly flow aloft. This upper flow is advecting tropical moisture across the Gulf and is generating scattered to numerous showers north of 25N and south of 25N west of 94W. The front and low will linger through Monday then merge with a new cold front that will enter the northeast Gulf later tonight. This merged front will move out of the Gulf late Tuesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An elongated upper ridge extends from east to west anchored near 17N78W and extends to over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from 18N79W along 15N81W to 11N81W generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms from 12N-17N between 77W- 84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the area from 11N-18N between 75W-84W. The east Caribbean is tranquil tonight. The surface trough trough will persist through midweek. The merged front in the Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwest Caribbean Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends from the central Atlantic along 20N69W over the island to near 18N71W. This is giving the Dominican Republic scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms east of the trough and within 45 nm west of the trough. Showers will linger over the Dominican Republic through Monday with some clearing on Tuesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a weak 1016 mb low near 32N79W extending a developing front southwest from the low to inland over northeast Florida near Jacksonville. A broad upper trough covers the remainder of the west Atlantic into the central Atlantic supporting a cold front that extends through 32N53W and continues to 27N66W where it becomes stationary along 28N73W to 30N77W. A surface trough precedes the front extending through 32N48W along 25N54W 20N69W to over Hispaniola. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north 28N between 46W and the cold front with scattered showers from 25N- 28N between the surface trough and the front. A broad surface ridge covers the east Atlantic anchored by a 1035 mb high about 700 nm northeast of the Azores. The new cold front will continue across the west Atlantic through midweek. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW