000 AXNT20 KNHC 132357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 657 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Broad high pressure over the eastern U.S. extends a ridge axis S-SW along Mexico, the NW Gulf and the western portion of the Bay of Campeche. In the southern Gulf, a stationary front prevails extending from 23N85W to 22N91W to a nearly stationary 1013 mb low in the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. The pressure gradient between these features generates strong to gale force NW to N winds S of 22N west of 94W with seas from 8 to 11 feet. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish tonight, however fresh to strong winds will prevail in this region through Tuesday morning. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 07N14W to 04N25W to 05N40W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning continues in effect for a portion of the SW Gulf waters being generated by strong pressure gradient between high pressure in the far W and NW Gulf and along Mexico, and low pressure associated with a stationary front connected to a low center in the Bay of Campeche. Gale winds are forecast to diminish tonight, however fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through Tuesday morning. Please refer to the special features section above for further details. Middle to upper level SW flow advects EPAC moisture to the basin, which is supporting scattered to isolated showers west of 90W and in the NE Gulf N of 28N. A middle to upper level trough in the Atlantic between 40W and 70W with base near 26N supports a cold front in the SW N Atlantic that transitions to a stationary front near 28N72W, continues across northern Florida to 29N82W to 28N84W in the NE Gulf. This small portion of the stationary front in the Gulf will weaken and dissipate tonight while a new developing cold front displaces over Florida through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence from aloft provide fair weather conditions to the NW and SE basin. However, deep layer moisture across the central and SW Caribbean along with upper level diffluence support numerous to scattered heavy showers and tstms from 11N to 16N between 78W and 83W. A surface trough along 18N77W to 11N80W enhances this convection. A shear line, remnants of a stationary front, supports scattered to isolated showers over the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. These showers extend SE to southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. GOES QPE imagery show rainfall accumulations of half an inch E of 71W over the past 6 hours in Hispaniola. Otherwise, moderate trades are E of 80W and gentle to moderate NE flow dominate the NW Caribbean waters. A center of low pressure is forecast to develop from the surface trough in the SW Caribbean, which will prevail in this region through Wednesday near sunrise, then is forecast to move N-NE towards Jamaica. A cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean early Wednesday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... A shear line, remnants of a stationary front, supports scattered to isolated showers over the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. GOES QPE imagery show rainfall accumulations of half an inch E of 71W over the past 6 hours in Hispaniola. Fresh to strong winds are across the Windward Passage tonight and will continue through the next 12 hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough in the Atlantic between 40W and 70W with base near 26N supports a cold front from 30N55W to 27N64W to 28N72W where it transitions to a stationary front and continues across northern Florida to 29N82W to 28N84W in the NE Gulf. Ahead of this front, a dissipating stationary front extends from 29N48W to 23N61W, then continuing as a shear line SW to NE Hispaniola near 19N70W. Scattered showers are between the two frontal boundaries N of 25N. Otherwise the remainder SW basin between the fronts is dominated by surface ridging as well as the E Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS