000 AXNT20 KNHC 131735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A broad high pressure is centered over easter CONUS extending its ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. In the southern Gulf, a stationary front extends from 24N83W to 23N90W to a 1014 mb low in the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. The pressure gradient between these features is generating strong to gale force northwest winds mainly south of 21N and west of 95W with seas from 8 to 11 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish late this afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 04N29W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along this boundary between 15W- 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. Please refer to the section above for details. A mid to upper-level southwest flow continues to advect moisture fro the EPAC into the northern Gulf supporting isolated showers mainly north of 26N. A 1014 mb surface low is located near 20N93W with stationary front extending from the low to 24N90W to 23N84W. Isolated showers are observed south of 21N between 91W-94W. A dry stationary front also extends across the Florida Peninsula from 27N83W to 28N81W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northeasterly winds across the basin except the Bay of Campeche where the Gale Warning is in effect. Expect for the frontal boundaries to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the lack of support aloft. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level ridge and strong dry air subsidence supports fair weather across the western portion of the basin west of 80W. A dry surface trough extends south of eastern Cuba from 19N82W to 20N77W to 20N74W. Another surface trough extends from 16N80W to 12N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of this trough between 72W-80W. A stationary front extend across Hispaniola with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across the basin. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... The tail end of a stationary front extends across the island supporting isolated showers mainly over Dominican Republic. This activity will continue through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will develop across the Windward Passage tonight and prevailing through Monday morning. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough in the west Atlantic supports a frontal boundary analyzed as a stationary front from 28N80W to 30N76W to 29N70W then as a cold front from that point to 29N63W to 31N56W. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers along and within 200 nm east of the cold front. Another frontal boundary extends across the central Atlantic, analyzed as a stationary front from 20N70W to 22N64W to 21N57W then as a cold front from 21N57W to 27N47W to 31N45W. Isolated showers are observed along these fronts. A surface trough extends from 15N51W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is east of this boundary from 07N-12N between 48W-52W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 46N15W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA