000 AXNT20 KNHC 130604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...A GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... The current situation consists of a stationary front 23N84W 24N90W 21N94W 18N93.5W. Gale-force NW winds are to the south of 21N to the west of 95W. Expect sea heights to range from 9 feet to 12 feet. Expect the gale-force conditions to continue for the next 18 hours or so. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...for more details. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N15W, to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N21W 05N32W, 03N37W and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N southward from 50W eastward. A surface trough is along 51W/52W from 14N southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N to 14N between 47W and 55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico, from 109W eastward, across the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond Florida. A stationary front curves from 23N84W to 24N90W to 22N93W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is in the SW corner of the area near 20N93W, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 22N between 92W and 95W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere in much of the area, except for parts of the area that are from 26N northward from 90W eastward, and from 25N southward from 84W eastward. A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA: MVFR at Fort Rucker. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview, and in the NW part of Panama City with smoke, in Apalachicola. MVFR in Perry and Cross City. IFR in Brooksville. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A ridge extends from northern sections of Colombia and NW Venezuela northwestward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 79W/80W from 16N southward. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N southward between 70W and 84W. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Merida, Mexico. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Haiti. Upper level N-to- NW wind flow is moving across the Dominican Republic. A dissipating stationary front cuts across Hispaniola along a NE- to-SW line. A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to SE Cuba. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N to 22N between 70W and 79W, including across interior sections of Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. ceiling at 5000 feet. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona at 13/0000 UTC: rain and thunder. Santo Domingo: MVFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. ceiling at 1700 feet. La Romana: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana: light rain. Santiago: rain. Puerto Plata: rain has ended for the moment. MVFR. ceiling at 1800 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level W wind flow moves from Florida and Georgia into the Atlantic Ocean. The wind flow crosses 70W, and then it changes to NW wind flow as it moves toward the central Atlantic Ocean deep layer trough. A cold front is to the north of the area, from 70W westward. A surface trough is along 31N72W, to south Florida near 26N82W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front, which includes the area that is covered by this surface trough. A deep layer central Atlantic Ocean trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N52W to 24N60W 22N69W, and dissipating cold front from 22N69W to 21N75W. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the SE of the cold front, between 53W and 66W. A post-frontal surface trough is to the NW of the cold front, passing through 32N55W to 29N60W and 29N66W. Convective precipitation: early strong precipitation has weakened. Cloud top temperatures have warmed significantly. Convective debris clouds and possible lingering rainshowers cover the area from 23N northward between 44W and 53W. Rainshowers are possible also from 24N northward between 52W and 80W, to the north of the cold front, and from 20N to 24N between 70W and 77W near the Bahamas and Cuba. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from 19N to 22N between 63W and 70W including along the coast of the Dominican Republic. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 60W and 68W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N34W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward between Africa and 45W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between Africa and 44W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT