000 AXNT20 KNHC 111116 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N18W to 03N29W to 08N50W to 08N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-15N between 29W-39W...and from 05N-13N between 42W- 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this morning between upper level ridging over the eastern waters and a broad middle to upper level low centered over far western Texas...NW Mexico...and southern New Mexico. Moisture and cloudiness continues to stream northeastward across NE Mexico...the NW Gulf waters and portions of eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi River valley with embedded scattered to numerous showers and isolated tstms occurring mainly W of 89W in the vicinity of a stationary front analyzed from 25N85W to 25N90W to 23N96W to 19N93W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of the stationary front...while fresh to strong N-NW winds are occurring W of the north-south oriented portion of the stationary front across the far SW Gulf waters off the coast of Mexico. Otherwise...the front is expected to move very little through Friday night while a new cold front is forecast to sink southward across the northern Gulf Saturday...eventually merging with the old front during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southerly upper level flow continues across much of the Caribbean basin this morning on the western periphery of an upper level anticyclone centered near 13N66W. Water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry air aloft N of 14N W of 70W. Mostly fair skies prevail across this area however low-level moisture convergence is maximized across the SW Caribbean where scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 14N W of 76W. Farther east...as middle to upper level moisture increase and upper level dynamics become more favorable...a surface trough extends from 11N70W into a 1009 mb low near 15N69W through the Mona Passage and into the SW North Atlc region near 19N68W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm either side of the boundary and in the vicinity of the low center. Elsewhere to the E-SE...isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 16N between 57W-64W. Overall moderate to occasional fresh trades are expected through Friday with little change expected during the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... A few isolated showers are occurring across the island this morning as W-SW flow aloft prevails between upper level ridging over the Caribbean Sea and an upper level trough to the N over the SW North Atlc region. The approach of a surface trough currently analyzed across the Mona Passage will introduce higher probabilities of precipitation and convection on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough extends across the SW North Atlc extending from a vigorous upper level low centered near 34N62W SW to a broad base near 22N67W. This feature is supporting a surface cold front which extends from 32N58W SW to 25N70W then W to the upper Florida Keys as a dissipating cold front near 25N81W. A pre-frontal surface trough also extends from the cold front near 29N61W SW to near the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 25N between 53W-60W. A stronger cold front is expected to move into the NW waters late Saturday. Finally...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 36N21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN