000 AXNT20 KNHC 110546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N17W to 04N29W to 07N40W to 08N50W to 09N57W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 30W-38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 42W-46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 49W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this evening between upper level ridging over the eastern waters and a broad middle to upper level low centered over far western Texas...NW Mexico...and southern New Mexico. Moisture and cloudiness continues to stream NE across east-central Mexico...the western Gulf waters and portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana with embedded scattered to numerous showers and isolated tstms occurring mainly W of 90W in the vicinity of a stationary front analyzed from 26N86W to 25N95W to 19N94W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of the stationary front...while fresh to strong N-NW winds are occurring W of the north-south oriented portion of the stationary front across the far SW Gulf waters off the coast of Mexico. Otherwise...the front is expected to move very little through Friday night while a new cold front is forecast to sink southward across the northern Gulf Saturday...eventually merging with the old front during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southerly upper level flow continues across much of the Caribbean basin this evening on the western periphery of an upper level anticyclone centered near 13N60W. Water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry air aloft N of 14N W of 69W. Mostly fair skies prevail across this area however a surface trough is analyzed from across the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W SE to 15N82W then S-SE to 11N81W. A few isolated showers are noted within 90 nm either side of the boundary. South of this surface trough...the Monsoon Trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W to 11N77W to western Panama and southern Costa Rica...then into the East Pacific region. Scattered showers and isolated strong tstms are occurring S of 11N between 76W-82W...including inland portions of Panama. Farther east...as middle to upper level moisture increase and upper level dynamics become more favorable...a surface trough extends from 11N67W into a 1011 mb low near 15N68W to N of Puerto Rico near 20N66W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm of the low center. Elsewhere to the E-SE...isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 16N between 58W-64W. Finally... overall moderate to occasional fresh trades are expected through the overnight hours into Friday with little change expected through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... A few isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as W-SW flow aloft prevails between upper level ridging over the Caribbean Sea and an upper level trough to the N over the SW North Atlc region. The approach of a surface trough currently analyzed along 67W will introduce higher probabilities of precipitation and convection on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough extends across the SW North Atlc extending from a vigorous upper level low centered near 35N64W SW through 31N65W to 25N70W. This feature is supporting a surface cold front which extends from 32N62W SW to 26N70W then W to the Florida peninsula near 26N80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring E of the front within 150 nm either side of a line from 25N63W to 32N56W. A stronger cold front is expected to move into the NW waters late Saturday. Finally...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 36N21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN