000
AXNT20 KNHC 101135
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EST THU NOV 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N15W to 04N24W to 07N33W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-08N between 09W-18W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 03N-21N between 22W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
progressing eastward offshore of the Carolinas this morning
supporting a cold front analyzed from the central Florida
peninsula to 27N86W then meanders as a stationary front W-SW to
26N96W then S to 18N94W. Abundant moisture from the Pacific
continues moving northeastward across central Mexico and much of
the Gulf basin supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms
mainly from 25N-28N between 83W-90W...and S of 28N W of 90W.
Earlier scatterometer data along with recent buoy and ship
observations indicate gentle to moderate E-SE flow across the SE
Gulf waters with fresh to strong N-NE flow found generally N of
the frontal boundary...and fresh to strong N-NW winds found E of
the front along the coast of Mexico. Looking ahead...the eastern
portion of the front is expected to gradually drift southward and
remain stationary from the Straits of Florida to the western
waters near 23N96W by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge extends across the western Caribbean...while
overall W-NW flow aloft persists over the eastern Caribbean. At
the surface...a trough extends from offshore of NE Honduras S-SE
to offshore of Nicaragua near 12N83W. Scattered showers and widely
scattered tstms are occurring from 11N-19N between 81W-86W in
association with the surface trough and likely enhanced due to the
diffluent upper level environment in place with the ridging aloft.
Another surface trough...which has the characteristics of a
tropical wave...extends from 11N64W to 20N63W. A 1010 mb surface
low persists along the trough near 15N. Scattered showers and
tstms continue to impact a portion of the Lesser Antilles and
adjacent Caribbean waters mainly from 13N-16N between 60W-65W.
The latest observations show mainly moderate trades across the
basin that are expected to persist through Friday. The trough in
the eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean Friday
before dissipating...while the western Caribbean trough persists
and remains nearly stationary.

...HISPANIOLA...
A few isolated showers are occurring along the northern coast of
the island this morning as a relatively dry and stable airmass
continues to influence the remainder of the island with fair
skies. Gentle to moderate E-NE winds are expected to persist
through Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends across the NW portion of
the SW North Atlc this morning supporting a cold front extending
from 32N73W SW to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral.
Widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are
occurring N of 27N between 58W-75W. The associated low pressure
area is forecast to remain across the waters N of the discussion
area...however the cold front will progress eastward through
Friday across the waters N of 24N to 55W. Farther east...an upper
level trough axis extends along 53W and supports a surface trough
analyzed from 32N45W to 26N53W and a second surface trough
extending from 26N48W to 20N55W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring from 20N-32N between 43W-53W in association
with these surface features. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high
centered SE of the Azores near 35N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN