000
AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 PM EST WED NOV 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W to
07N34W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-23N
between 18W-31W. This convection continues to be enhanced by a 
diffluent flow aloft on the southeastern periphery of an upper
level low centered near 22N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb surface low was analyzed across the north-central Gulf
near 28N89W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to
25N90W and a developing warm front extends northeast from the low
to 30N88W to 31N85W. Abundant moisture from the Pacific continues
moving northeastward across central Mexico and much of the
northwestern Gulf supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of 22N and west of 85W. To the south, a dry surface
trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 18N94W.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge
anchored by a 1018 mb high centered across the west Atlantic.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across
the northern half of the basin while gentle to moderate variable
winds prevail south of 25N. Expect for the low to move east while
a frontal boundary approaches from the north. The low will be
absorbed by this front within the next 24 hours. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds are expected north of the front while fresh to
strong westerlies will prevail south of the front. The front is
expected to gradually become stationary from the Straits of
Florida to the western waters near 23N96W by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge extends across the western Caribbean while a
broad upper-level trough is noted over the northeast portion of
the basin. At the surface, a trough extends from 19N86W to 16N83W
with scattered moderate convection. Another surface trough extends
south of the Windward Passage from 19N74W to 15N76W. The Monsoon
Trough extends along 10N between 76W-83W with isolated showers.
Dry weather prevails across the remainder of the basin except over
the Windward Islands, where a surface trough is enhancing
convection east of 62W. Expect for this trough to continue moving
west within the next 24 hours across the eastern Caribbean
enhancing convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. 

...HISPANIOLA...

A lingering surface trough extends across the northern portion of
the island providing focus for possible isolated showers in the
afternoon/evening hours. As this boundary becomes diffuse during
the next 24 to 36 hours, fair weather will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the western Atlantic
supporting a 995 mb surface low centered north of the discussion
area near 40N56W. Its associated cold front extends from 30N60W to 
41N50W while a weakening cold front extends from 26N65W to 34N49W
to 42N45W. A surface trough is also associated to this low and
extends from 19N69W to 30N50W. An area of scattered light to
moderate convection prevails between 52W-60W. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1033 mb high centered southeast of the Azores near 36N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA