000 AXNT20 KNHC 081736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 PM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 08N37W to 10N54W to 06N37W to 09N48W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-17N between 10W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level ridge prevails over much of the basin. A mid- level shortwave trough is noted on Water Vapor imagery along 91W supporting a 1016 mb surface low centered near 28N91W with a surface trough that extends from 24N95W, to the low, to 29N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring mainly north of 23N and west of 87W. Elsewhere: a surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high centered near 38N81W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the west Gulf west of 91W while moderate to fresh easterlies prevail east of 91W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface low and trough to drift eastward. A cold front is expected to move across the northern Gulf waters on Wednesday and provide fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and fresh to strong N-NW winds W of the boundary across the far western Gulf. The front is expected to gradually become stationary from the Straits of Florida to the western waters near 24N by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough is noted over the western Caribbean with axis extending from over eastern Cuba near 20N77W to a base over eastern Honduras near 15N83W. Water Vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft in association with this trough. Farther east, as flow aloft becomes southwesterly...moisture and cloudiness increases across the central and eastern Caribbean mainly east of 80W. A pair of surface troughs extend from 19N76W to 20N72W and from 16N72W to 19N64W with isolated convection. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northeasterly winds west of 75W while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. An active surface trough will enter the eastern Caribbean within the next 24 hours with scattered moderate convection affecting the Lesser Antilles. Little change is expected elsewhere during the next 24-48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends across the northwest coast of the island from 19N76W to 20N72W generating isolated showers mainly across the adjacent Atlantic waters. The trough is expected to remain stationary and linger across the region through Wednesday providing for continued precipitation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level low is centered north of the discussion area near 37N63W supporting a cold front that extends from 24N71W to 32N56W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N71W to 24N60W to 32N54W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are observed within 200 nm on either side of the surface trough. An active surface trough extends east of the Lesser Antilles from 16N57W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough between 54W-61W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered southeast of the Azores near 37N23W. One exception to the ridging is a weakness analyzed as a dry surface trough extending from 21N38W to 17N39W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA