000 AXNT20 KNHC 081100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N19W to 07N24W to 08N30W to 06N37W to 09N48W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-14N between 10W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this morning with middle to upper level troughing noted on water vapor imagery over the central US Plains extending SW to over NW Mexico near 27N107W. A mid-level shortwave trough is also indicated to the E-SE of the main troughing in the vicinity of 35N90W. This shortwave troughing supports a surface trough boundary analyzed across Mississippi to SE Louisiana into the NW Gulf waters near 30N92W to 26N95W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally NW of a line from the Florida panhandle near 30N84W to the east-central coast of Mexico near Tampico. Otherwise...a ridge axis extends from a 1029 mb high centered across the Virginia to 30N84W to the SW Gulf waters near 21N94W. Primarily moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected through Wednesday as the surface trough drifts eastward. In addition...a cold front is expected to move across the northern Gulf waters Wednesday and provide fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and fresh to strong N-NW winds W of the boundary across the far western Gulf. Thereafter through Friday...the front is expected to gradually become stationary from the Straits of Florida to the western waters near 24N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough is noted over the western Caribbean with axis extending from over eastern Cuba near 21N78W SW to a base over far eastern Honduras near 15N85W. Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft in association with the troughing... however farther east...as flow aloft becomes southwesterly... moisture and cloudiness increases across the central and eastern Caribbean. With the close proximity to a stationary front analyzed along 20N to the Windward Passage region and a surface trough analyzed to the SE of the front across the Mona Passage region...these boundaries are providing focus for widely scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring mainly N of 16N E of 73W. A few isolated showers and tstms are occurring as well S of 14N between 64W-79W. The front is expected to remain stationary along 19N/20N Tuesday into Wednesday with fresh NE to E winds expected across the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba and across the Windward Passage region. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trade are expected to prevail elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently a stationary front extends across the northern coast of the island from 20N68W to 19N76W generating isolated showers this morning. Much of the stronger convective activity remains E of 70W as middle to upper level dynamics are maximized E of an upper level trough over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The front is expected to remain stationary and linger across the region through Wednesday providing for continued precipitation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered north of the discussion area near 36N63W and supports a pair of fronts that extend across the SW North Atlc region this morning. The first front extends stationary from 32N54W SW to 24N60W to 20N71W with scattered showers and tstms occurring within 180 nm either side of the front...and N of 25N between 46W-52W. The second front is a cold front stemming from a gale-force 998 mb low centered near 35N63W. The front enters the discussion area near 32N58W to 26N67W with isolated showers within 75 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of moderate to fresh N-NE flow between the surface low and surface high pressure anchored across the eastern CONUS. Finally...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 37N23W. One exception to the ridging is a weakness analyzed as a surface trough extending from 17N38W to 21N36W. The surface trough is supported aloft by a middle to upper level low centered near 25N31W with isolated showers and tstms occurring from 12N- 21N between 24W-34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN