000 AXNT20 KNHC 072304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N17W to 9N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N23W 8N40W to 12N56W. Scattered moderate with embedded clusters of isolated strong convection are within 150/180 nm north of the ITCZ between 47W-54W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from the ITCZ to 12N between 22W-37W and from 10N-15N between 54W-58W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 2N-7N between 13W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad low amplitude upper ridge extends from the Bay of Campeche to the north Gulf coast near the Mississippi River. A shortwave upper trough is moving across Louisiana to the Gulf coast supporting a surface trough analyzed from 30N80W along 28N93W to 27N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 26N to inland over the north Gulf coast between 86W- 94W. A surface ridge axis extends from the southeast CONUS over the Florida peninsula covering the Gulf of Mexico and into the west Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high over Virginia. Isolated low level showers are in the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida south of 24N east of 88W. The surface trough is expected to align north and south then shift east through Wednesday night. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday and will reach from south Florida to the southwest Gulf Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad low amplitude trough covers the west Caribbean west of 75W while an upper ridge covers the east Caribbean anchored near Trinidad. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from south Haiti near 18N72W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of a line from 15N71W to 17N64W. A second surface trough is to the west extending along 79W from 15N-18N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-17N between 76W-79W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to across the Greater Antilles including the the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are across the south Caribbean south of 14N between 68W-80W. The eastern surface trough will dissipate overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected in the north-central Caribbean through Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... The surface trough extends from south Haiti near 18N72W into the central Caribbean generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of the island this evening. Although the surface trough is expected to dissipate, lingering moisture will continue showers and possible thunderstorms across the island through Wednesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a leading cold front that extends through 32N54W and continues along 23N62W 21N71W where it dissipates as a stationary front over Cuba near 21N78W. A reinforcing cold front trails, extending through 32N62W along 29N66W to 29N73W. An upper ridge to the east of the upper trough is providing difflunce aloft to generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 300 nm east of the leading cold front and south of the front to over the Greater Antilles including the the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. A surface ridge is building south over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic west of 70W and anchored by a 1032 mb high over Virginia. A second upper trough is centered over the east Atlantic near 30N25W supporting a pair of surface troughs. One extends from 25N40W to 21N46W with a second extending from 22N33W to 17N36W. A second surface ridge covers the remainder of the east Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high northeast of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold fronts will merge Tuesday and slowly dissipate north of the Greater Antilles through the end of the week. A third cold front will move into the west Atlantic Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW