000 AXNT20 KNHC 071144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N17W 05N30W 07N43W and 06N47W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough is moving into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: Areas of low level-to-middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are moving from east to west, across the area. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow also covers the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KXIH, KVAF, KEHC, KVOA, and KVKY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: IFR in Hebbronville. light rain in Rockport. IFR in Victoria. rain and thunder at the Ellington General Airport in Houston. IFR from Sugar Land to the southern part of the Houston metropolitan area, to the Houston Intercontinental Airport to Tomball to Conroe to Huntsville. heavy rain in Beaumont/Port Arthur. earlier drizzle in Jasper has ended for the moment. LOUISIANA: light rain in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. rain in Lafayette and New Iberia. from MISSISSIPPI to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak and remnant upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the Windward Passage eastward. A surface trough is along 72W/73W from 11N at the coast of Colombia to 19N in Haiti. This trough and the large scale cyclonic wind flow have been in this area more or less during the last few days, being associated earlier with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 08N to 13N between 70W and 73W in NW Venezuela, and around Colombia from 09N to 13N between 73W and 77W. An upper level trough is moving into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level W-to-SW wind flow is to the east of the trough. Upper level SW is moving from Colombia and Venezuela, into the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The wind flow eventually merges with the area of weak and remnant cyclonic wind flow, that is from Windward Passage eastward. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 07/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.90 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective precipitation: from 19N to 22N between 64W and the Windward Passage including off the NE coast of Hispaniola, and from 16N to 20N between 66W and 71W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 07/0200 UTC: rain. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds, at 07/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo: rain and thunder. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago and Puerto Plata: MVFR ceiling. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB and for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during day one. A trough will move across the area during day two, and the wind flow will become NW after the trough moves across the area. The passage of the trough at 500 mb will be comparatively more subtle and less- pronounced than the passage of the trough at 250 mb. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during day one. Expect S-to-SW wind flow, in a ridge, for day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from 50W westward. An upper level trough that is in the area is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N58W to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 28N60W. A cold front continues from the 1010 mb low center, to 25N62W, 23N70W, and 22N79W in Cuba. Convective precipitation: in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N northward between 50W and 60W, from 19N to 22N between 64W and the Windward Passage including off the NE coast of Hispaniola, and in the Caribbean Sea from 16N to 20N between 66W and 71W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N between 50W and 70W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 22N northward between 30W and 50W. This area of cyclonic wind flow supports a stationary front that passes through 32N38W to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 30N39W. The stationary front continues from the 1017 mb low center, to 29N36W and 22N36W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 20N to 26N between 30W and 40W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough have moved into Africa mostly. Some residual deep layer cyclonic wind flow remains from 15N northward and from 20W eastward. A surface trough is along 31N10W to 28N18W to 25N17W. Rainshowers are possible from 17N northward from 20W eastward. A central Atlantic Ocean surface ridge is along 20N50W to 27N45W beyond 32N43W. A second surface ridge is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, from the Cabo Verde Islands to beyond 32N26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT