000 AXNT20 KNHC 070600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N30W 08N46W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough is moving toward the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: Areas of low level-to-middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are moving from east to west, across the area. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow also covers the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Rockport. heavy rain in Palacios. MVFR in Bay City. heavy rain in Sugar Land. thunder and rain from the Houston Intercontinental Airport to Tomball to Conroe to Huntsville. rain in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper. LOUISIANA: light rain in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. from MISSISSIPPI to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak and remnant upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the Windward Passage eastward. A surface trough is along 72W/73W from 12N to 19N in Haiti. This trough and the large- scale cyclonic wind flow have been in this area more or less during the last few days, being associated earlier with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 14N to 20N between 60W and 73W. An upper level trough is moving toward the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level W-to-SW wind flow is to the east of the trough. Upper level SW is moving from Colombia and Venezuela, into the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The wind flow eventually merges with the area of weak and remnant cyclonic wind flow, that is from Windward Passage eastward. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 07/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.90 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 21N between 67W and 71W off the coast of Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 07/0200 UTC: rain. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds. rain and thunder from one hour ago have ended. La Romana: rain and thunder. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto Plata: rain and thunder. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB and for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during day one. A trough will move across the area during day two, and the wind flow will become NW after the trough moves across the area. The passage of the trough at 500 mb will be comparatively more subtle and less- pronounced than the passage of the trough at 250 mb. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during day one. Expect S-to-SW wind flow, in a ridge, for day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from 50W westward. An upper level trough that is in the area is supporting a stationary front that curves through 32N59W to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 28N63W. A cold front continues from the 1010 mb low center, to 24N70W, and 24N74W. A stationary front continues from 24N74W to 22N81W in Cuba. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N northward between 50W and 60W, and from 19N to 21N between 67W and 71W off the coast of Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N between 50W and 70W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 22N northward between 30W and 50W. This area of cyclonic wind flow supports a stationary front that passes through 32N38W to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 30N38W. The stationary front continues from the 1017 mb low center, to 28N36W, 25N38W, and 23N42W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough have moved into Africa mostly. Some residual deep layer cyclonic wind flow remains from 20W eastward. A surface trough is along 31N12W, across the eastern parts of the Canary Islands, to 26N18W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 20W eastward. A central Atlantic Ocean surface ridge is along 20N55W to 28N48W beyond 32N44W. A second surface ridge is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, from the Cabo Verde Islands to 24N29W beyond 32N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT