000 AXNT20 KNHC 062327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 7N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N28W 8N41W 9N50W to 8N59W. Scattered moderate with embedded clusters of isolated strong convection are from the ITCZ to 12N between 43W-52W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 7N-9N between 20W-26W and from 3N-7N between 26W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad low amplitude upper ridge extends from the Bay of Campeche to the north Gulf coast near Mobile, Alabama. A diurnal surface trough is in the southwest Gulf extending from 21N95W to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. A surface ridge extends from the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1030 mb high over Ohio and a weak 1021 mb high along the coast of Mexico near Tuxpan. The westerly upper flow combining with the easterly surface flow is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N west of 90W. Isolated low level showers are in the Straits of Florida south of the Florida Keys east of 86W. A surface trough is expected to form over the northwest Gulf tonight and move slowly east through Wednesday, becoming a closed surface low in the northeast Gulf Wednesday night. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday and shift rapidly across the Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad low amplitude ridge covers the Caribbean this evening. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from Hispaniola near 19N71W to off Colombia near 13N73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 15N west of 71W to over the the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. The surface trough will dissipate Monday. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected in the north-central Caribbean Monday through Tuesday night. ...HISPANIOLA... The surface trough extends from over the island near 19N71W into the central Caribbean generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic. Isolated showers are possible across Haiti. This activity will continue through Monday when the surface trough is expected to dissipate. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a cold front that extends to 32N57W where it becomes stationary to a 1010 mb low centered near 28N64W then continues as a cold front along 25N71W to 23N77W where it dissipates over Cuba to near 23N82W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the front north of the low. An upper ridge to the east of the upper trough is providing difflunce aloft to generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from within 150/200 nm of a line from the Leeward Islands near 16N61W along 24N59W to beyond 32N56W. A surface ridge is building east from over the eastern CONUS into the west Atlantic to the above frontal boundary, anchored by a 1030 mb high over Ohio. A second surface ridge covers the east and central Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high near 32N43W. A remnant stationary front splits the above surface ridge along 32N36W to a weak 1016 mb low near 31N38W then continues along 27N36W to 23N41W. The west Atlantic cold front will become stationary from near 32N57W along 22N61W to Hispaniola early Monday. A second cold front will move into the west Atlantic from the north Monday, then move southeast and merge with the stationary front Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW