000
AXNT20 KNHC 061734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the east
Atlantic waters near 07N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ begins from that
point to 09N38W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within
100 nm north of the ITCZ between 43W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered near 20N97W. A surface trough extends across the Bay
of Campeche from 23N94W to 19N94W with isolated showers. To the
east, an upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic
supporting a dry and weak cold front currently located over the
Florida Straits along 23N between 80W-83W. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds north of 25N while light
to gentle easterlies prevail south of 25N. Expect for the front to
dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change is expected
elsewhere.


...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface ridge extends across the western Caribbean with fair
weather. To the east, a surface trough extends south of Hispaniola from
18N69W to 12N73W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east
of the trough between 66W-71W affecting the western portion of
Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage, and eastern Hispaniola. To the
south, the Monsoon Trough extends along 09N between 76W-83W
supporting scattered moderate convection in this area. A
diffluent flow aloft is supporting cloudiness and isolated
showers east of 63W affecting the Lesser Antilles. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate northerly winds across the western half of
the basin while gentle to moderate trades prevail across the
eastern half. Expect for a dry cold front to move across Cuba and
the far western Caribbean today enhancing winds/seas. The surface
trough south of Hispaniola will drift east.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface trough extends south of the island enhancing isolated
convection mainly across Dominican Republic. The trough drift east
over the next 24 hours. Drier conditions will prevail across the
island through this period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic supporting
a cold front analyzed from 23N80W to 31N59W. This feature
combined with a diffluent flow aloft are supporting scattered
showers mainly north of 20N between 55W-65W. To the east, a 1020
mb surface high is centered near 28N51W. A 1017 mb surface low is
centered near 30N37W with a stationary front extending from the
low to 24N39W. A surface trough is from 24N39W to 20N43W. A 1014 mb
low is centered near 30N57W with surface trough extending
southwest across the Canary Islands. Expect for the cold front in
the west Atlantic to continue moving east while weakening. A strong
high pressure will build behind the front. The central Atlantic
front will dissipate this evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA