000 AXNT20 KNHC 061200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W to 07N25W 10N37W 08N42W and 04N51W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 30 nm on either side of 08N46W 10N48W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 07N between 45W and 47W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is moving through the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 86W westward. Rainshowers are possible also from 856W eastward, as low level clouds move from the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, into the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the low pressure extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico northwestward to the NE coast of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N southward from 90W westward. A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 22N98W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow also covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KATP. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville. light rain in Alice. rain in Port Lavaca. light rain in Jasper. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is along 66W/67W. This trough has been in this area more or less during the last few days, as it was being associated earlier with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 14N to 16N between 71W and 72W in the Caribbean Sea, and from 20N to 22N between 64W and 67W in the Atlantic Ocean. isolated moderate to locally strong from 23N between 60W and 75W in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea toward the Greater Antilles. Upper level SW wind flow is moving from Central America, from Guatemala southward, and from Colombia and Venezuela, into the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The wind flow eventually becomes more westerly, and it merges with an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that is associated with the current Caribbean Sea trough. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 06/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.30 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area, in relation to the Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 14N to 16N between 71W and 72W in the Caribbean Sea, and from 20N to 22N between 64W and 67W in the Atlantic Ocean. isolated moderate to locally strong from 23N between 60W and 75W in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceilings. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: from Santo Domingo to La Romana to Punta Cana: thunder and rain. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR; scattered cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will become W wind flow, and eventually SW wind flow for the rest of day one. Day two will consist of entirely SW wind flow. A trough will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist of SW and W wind flow. Day two will consist of only SW wind flow. A trough will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S -to-SW wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during day one. Expect SW wind flow, in a ridge, for day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough is in the western Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward from 60W westward. The trough supports the cold front that passes through 32N62W to 28N70W, across the northern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, to 24N82W, just to the south of the Florida Keys. A surface trough continues from 24N86W to 24N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 30N64W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 29N66W, to 26N68W, just to the east of the cold front. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 75 nm on either side of 23N62W 32N58W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N northward between 30W and 45W. This is the area of cyclonic wind flow that used to be associated with the gale-force winds from 24 hours ago to 48 hours ago. A cold front passes through 32N34W to 24N36W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 24N to 30N between 33W and 36W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between 30W and 60W. High level moisture is streaming northeastward within 250 nm on either side of 10N55W 18N54W 21N46W 20N36W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa and 30W. The trough cuts across the area of the ITCZ. A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 29N18W, to 26N19W and 24N21W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate covers the area from 27N northward from 25W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between the Atlantic Ocean cold front/stationary front and the western Atlantic Ocean cold front. One 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N50W. A second 1020 mb high pressure center is near 29N42W. A surface ridge is along 15N33W 27N31W beyond 32N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT