000 AXNT20 KNHC 052350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 8N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N28W 7N39W 8N46W to 7N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-11N between 32W-45W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-8N between 20W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... The broad upper trough in the west Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends across Florida near Miami then south of Naples into the Gulf of Mexico to 25N85W where it dissipates to 26N93W. Isolated low level showers are within 90 nm south of the front east of 82W including the Florida Keys. A shortwave upper trough is moving through the northwest Gulf from southwest Louisiana to Tuxpan Mexico and is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 25N-28N west of 94W to the coast of Texas. A surface trough is in the southwest Gulf extending along 93W south of 23N to the coast of Mexico. A surface ridge is building south over the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage. The cold front will dissipate Sunday. The next cold front will move into the Gulf on Wednesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A low amplitude ridge covers the west Caribbean with the axis along 84W while a low amplitude trough covers the east Caribbean with the axis along 65W. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from 20N73W across the Windward Passage/west Haiti into the Caribbean to off Colombia near 13N73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 16N between 67W-71W, south of 13N into the Gulf of Venezuela, inland and within 60 nm along the coast of Colombia, and east of 67W to over the Lesser Antilles. The surface trough will persist through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... The surface trough over west Haiti and the Windward Passage is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island this evening. This activity will continue through Monday when the surface trough is expected to dissipate. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a cold front that extends across Bermuda along 28N73W, over the northern Bahama Islands then across Florida near Miami into the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated low level showers are possible within 90 nm southeast of the front. Also embedded within the upper trough is a weak 1012 mb low near 27N68W with a surface trough extending from 30N66W through the low to 26N69W. An upper ridge to the east of the upper trough is providing difflunce aloft to generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Greater Antilles to 31N between 61W-69W. A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N50W. An upper trough is over the north-central Atlantic supporting a cold front that enters the east/central Atlantic near 32N36W and extends to 25N38W where it becomes stationary to 20N42W, then becomes a surface trough to 18N48W. scattered showers are within 120 nm east of the cold front. A deep layered low is over the Canary Islands with an upper trough extending to 10N east of 30W supporting a 1010 mb low near 30N17W with a surface trough extending south through the Canary Islands to 24N21W. A warm front extends from the low to beyond the Madeira Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 26N-30N east of 16W to the coast of Africa. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N58W 26N65W to the southern Bahamas Sunday afternoon, then become stationary from near 32N55W 21N65W to Hispaniola Monday night. The next cold front will move into the west Atlantic Monday and extend from 32N65W to 27N73W Monday afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW