000 AXNT20 KNHC 051753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ begins near 07N13W and extends to 07N36W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the boundary between 11W- 47W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic supporting a dry cold front analyzed from 27N93W to 26N82W. Moderate north winds prevail north of the front while moderate to fresh northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data south of the front. To the southwest, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 20N94W. Isolated showers are observed along this boundary. A surface ridge prevails across the eastern portion of Mexico anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 23N99W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface ridge to continue building across the basin in the wake of the front. The front will continue moving south across the eastern Gulf waters then entering the western Caribbean while weakening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends across the western Caribbean with fair weather. To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N73W to 13N75W. Isolated showers are observed along this boundary affecting Haiti and adjacent waters. A cluster of moderate convection developed south of 11N between 75W-79W. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting cloudiness and isolated moderate convection east of 66W affecting Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the west and central Caribbean while moderate to fresh winds are east of 67W. A dry cold front will enter the western Caribbean within the next 24 hours enhancing winds/seas. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... The surface trough extends across the western portion of the island enhancing isolated convection. The trough will continue enhancing convection through the next 24 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic supporting a dry cold front that extends from 27N79W to 31N69W. To the east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 27N69W with a trough extending from the low to 30N66W. Scattered showers are observed east of these features between 60W-67W. A 1020 mb surface high is centered near 27N53W. A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of this high mainly south of 21N between 50W-60W affecting the Lesser Antilles. Another dry cold front front was analyzed from 31N37W to 20N42W, with a surface trough from 20N42W to 17N45W. A 1013 mb low is centered near 32N17W with surface trough extending southwest across the Canary Islands enhancing isolated convection. Expect for the cold front in the west Atlantic to continue moving east while weakening. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. The central Atlantic front will stall tonight then dissipate by Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA