000 AXNT20 KNHC 050552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N15W. The ITCZ continues from 09N15W to 08N20W 08N26W 08N35W 09N41W and 08N50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 30W eastward, across the area of the ITCZ. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 07N between 10W and 17W, from 04N to 10N between 17W and 28W, from 03N to 07N between 32W and 44W, and from 04N to 13N between 44W and 54W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through 32N74W to 29N76W, to 26N81W in Florida, to 26N84W. A cold front passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 29N82W, northwestward into SE Louisiana. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the N and NW of the trough, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward from 90W eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. In the Atlantic Ocean: to the north of the line that passes through 32N62W 29N73W 27N80W. A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 71W/72W from 22N to 29N. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N to 30N between 66W and 71W. ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface low pressure extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico northwestward to the NE coast of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N southward from 90W westward. A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through the coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMZG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: light rain in McAllen. MVFR in Bay City and Huntsville. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. Heavy rain at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 31N63W to 24N65W, across Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean Sea near 15N66W, to 12N63W. A surface trough is along 19N71W in the Dominican Republic, to 16N73W, and 13N73W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N to 21N between 60W and 73W, in some parts of Hispaniola, across the other islands, and in the coastal waters. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere between 70W and 77W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from Venezuela and Colombia to the Greater Antilles between 65W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. This drier air is associated with the upper level trough that extends from the central Atlantic Ocean to Puerto Rico. Upper level NW wind flow covers much of the rest of the area, away from the cyclonic wind flow that is associated with the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea upper level trough. 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 05/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in Curacao, 0.13 in Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area, in relation to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N to 21N between 60W and 73W, in some parts of Hispaniola, across the other islands, and in the coastal waters. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere between 70W and 77W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceilings. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: from Barahona to Santo Domingo to La Romana to Punta Cana: thunder and rain. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during day one. W and SW wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that variable but slightly anticyclonic wind flow will start on day one, transitioning eventually into SW wind flow for the rest of day one. W-to-SW wind flow will move across the area for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S-to-SW wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during day one. Expect more southerly wind flow, in a ridge, for day two. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N northward between 37W and 55W. This is the area of cyclonic wind flow that used to be associated with the gale-force winds from 24 hours ago to 48 hours ago. A cold front passes through 32N39W to 25N40W and 21N42W. A surface trough continues from 21N42W to 17N49W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 16N northward between 30W and 60W. Numerous strong from 12N to 14N between 55W and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W. Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N to 30N between 30W and 60W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa and 30W. The trough is along 33N18W 27N20W 02N28W. The trough cuts across the area of the ITCZ. A surface trough passes through 32N17W, across the western sections of the Canary Islands, to 25N22W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N between Africa and 23W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 16N northward from 30W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward from 50W and 70W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N57W. 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