000 AXNT20 KNHC 042359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 9N13W to 8N15W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N27W 6N33W to 8N55W. Scattered strong convection is from 4N-10N between 18W-21W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection cover the remainder of the area from $N-11N between 15W-27W, and from 3N-6N between 33W-40W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 7N-12N between 46W- 57W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A shortwave upper trough extends from the northwest Atlantic to over northeast Florida supporting a cold front that extends at 04/2100 UTC from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida near Saint Augustine into the Gulf along 30N87W to inland over Louisiana near New Orleans continuing west to over east Texas. An upper ridge anchored over Guatemala extends an upper ridge axis north across the Gulf to over the central CONUS near the Louisiana/Texas border. Isolated showers are possible across the west Gulf south of 28N west of 93W, leaving the remainder of the Gulf with fair weather this evening. A surface ridge extends from Texas and northeast Mexico east over the Gulf anchored by a 1030 mb high over the Oklahoma panhandle with a weak 1025 mb high over east Mexico. The cold front will reach the Straits of Florida late Saturday before dissipating Sunday. Strong high pressure will build behind the front Sunday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and anchored over Guatemala covers the west Caribbean west of 80W. A broad upper trough over the west Atlantic dips south over the remainder of the Caribbean with the axis along 70W. An inverted surface trough extends from the south coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N69W along 15N72W to off the coast of Colombia near 12N73W. An upper ridge to the east of the Lesser Antilles is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 14N east of 67W to over the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico. The surface trough will persist through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... The surface trough just south of the island coupled with the easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers and thunderstorms are across the south portion of the island this evening. This activity will continue through the weekend, especially over the Dominican Republic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shortwave upper trough extends from the northeast Atlantic to over northeast Florida supporting a cold front that at 04/2100 UTC extends through 32N74W to across Florida neat Saint Augustine with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60/75 nm east of the front to 79W. A broad upper trough covers the remainder of the west Atlantic west of 57W. An inverted surface trough extends from 28N72W to the Turks and Caicos near 22N73W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 23N-28N east of the surface trough to 66W. A deep layered low is over the north-central Atlantic with an upper trough extending to 30N between 40W-51W supporting a cold front that at 04/1800 UTC extends into the central Atlantic near 32N40W continuing along 25N41W to 21N45W where it becomes a surface trough to 18N49W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 75 nm east of the front. An upper trough over the far northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area to 31N11W where it becomes stationary to the Canary Islands then dissipates to 26N17W. A surface trough trails the front extending through 32N17W to 27N21W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm east of the front with scattered showers north of 29N west of the surface trough to 23W. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Saturday, from 32N57W 29N65W to the central Bahamas Sunday, and from 32N56W 24N65W to the southern Bahamas Monday. Strong high pressure will build behind the front over the weekend. The central Atlantic front will stall along 37W Saturday night before dissipating Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW