000 AXNT20 KNHC 040005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...Special Features... A 1000 mb low is centered near 27N49W with a surface trough that extends from 34N44W along 32N47W through the low along 22N50W to 19N53W an is supported by an upper trough over the west Atlantic. Global model guidance indicates the low is expected to move NE and strengthen slightly tonight and be north of the area on Friday. Gale force winds are within 120 nm west and 180 nm east of the low. These gale force winds will track north with the low and be within 180 nm east of the low tonight and be north of the area on Friday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N13W to 9N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N35W to 9N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-9N between 15W-27W and from 1N-7N between 30W-37W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N-10N between 42W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak remnant surface trough remains along the coast of Mexico from Tampico along 20N96W to near Veracruz. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 21N-25N west of 94W. A large upper ridge anchored over Central America extends an upper ridge axis to over the Gulf into the CONUS near the mouth of the Mississippi. Isolated showers are possible within 30 nm of a line from the Straits of Florida near 25N81W to 23N86W and from 21N-25N between 89W-92W. A surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf. The surface trough in the southwest Gulf will persist into the weekend. A cold front will move into the northeast Gulf Friday afternoon moving south- southeast to the Straits of Florida this weekend. A pre-frontal trough will move into the northeast Gulf late tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper ridge is anchored over Central America covering the Caribbean west of 75W. At the surface is a 1011 mb low centered near 13N82W with a surface trough extending from 16N81W through the low to 10N83W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N-15N west of 81W to the coast of Nicaragua. An upper trough extends from the west Atlantic across the Dominican Republic/Mona Passage to the coast of Venezuela near 10N65W supporting a 1008 mb low north of the ABC Islands near 13N70W with a surface trough extending from the low along 14N68W 15N63W across the Lesser Antilles to 18N58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-18N between 66W- 70W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the area from 13N-20N between 58W-65W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under clear skies this evening. The fresh to strong winds across the north-central and northwest Caribbean will gradually diminish tonight. The west Caribbean trough and low will drift south and dissipate by Friday morning. The east Caribbean low and trough will gradually dissipate through Friday and leave a broad north/south trough along 70W this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the island this evening and will persist into the weekend, especially over the Dominican Republic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored over Central America covers the far west Atlantic. A surface ridge covers the west Atlantic west of 60W with a 1023 mb high near 32N69W. An upper trough extends across the west Atlantic through 32N56W along 24N64W to over the Dominican Republic/Mona Passage into the east Caribbean supporting a cold front that extends through 32N49W to 23N55W. Also embedded within this area is a 1000 mb low/surface trough in the special features above. An upper ridge anchored in the tropics extends an upper ridge axis along 42W enhancing scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between 40W-50W. An upper trough over the far east Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 21N14W along 27N21W to 25N31W with a pre-frontal trough extending through 32N10W to inland over Africa near 28N12W. Scattered to numerous showers are within 260 nm southeast of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north 30N between 17W-22W. A cold front will move into the west Atlantic off northeast Florida Friday afternoon with a pre- frontal trough moving off the coast late tonight. This front will reach Bermuda this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW