000 AXNT20 KNHC 031701 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1000 mb low is centered near 26N50W and remains supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough with axis extending from 32N57W to a broad base over the NE Caribbean Sea near 17N68W. Global model guidance indicates the low is expected to move NE and strengthen slightly during the next 24 hours across the central Atlc. Maintaining strength due to favorable middle to upper level dynamics...near gale to gale force conditions result at the surface in the vicinity of the low and are expected to persist through 04/1800 UTC as the low center moves N of the discussion area. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 09N26W to 06N41W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 16W-33W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N-12N between 10W-30W...and from 04N-12N between 42W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this afternoon with dry and stable NW flow noted on water vapor imagery E of 90W and relatively moist and marginally unstable air within SW flow aloft W of 90W. Beneath the southerly flow...a surface trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf waters from 18N95W to 23N98W. Convergent easterly winds on the east side of the trough axis along with the diffluence aloft is generating scattered showers and isolated strong tstms from 18N-26N between 94W-98W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across Georgia. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected to continue through tonight. Overnight into Friday...the ridging to the N shifts eastward into the SW North Atlc waters and a cold front is forecast to impact the northern waters by Friday night with strong NE winds expected in wake of the front through early Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across much of the Caribbean basin this afternoon between an upper level anticyclone centered near 16N87W and an upper level trough with axis extending along 67W. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air aloft over the Greater Antilles and central Caribbean waters...however moisture associated with the upper level ridging along with a surface trough analyzed along the Central America coast from southern Belize to NE Nicaragua to western Panama...is providing focus for widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 08N-15N between 78W- 84W. Much of this convection is enhanced due to the favorable upper level diffluent environment. Farther east...with the upper level troughing in place...a frontal trough extends from the central tropical Atlc near 20N53W SW to near Dominica then meanders into a 1010 mb low centered near 14N69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring mainly E of the upper level trough axis across the eastern Caribbean...including the Lesser Antilles. The trough is forecast to lift N of the basin and weaken by Saturday. Lastly...overall moderate to occasional fresh winds outside of strong convection are occurring across portions of the central and western Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently NW flow and very dry and and stable conditions aloft prevail over the island this afternoon. Clear skies and fair conditions result at the surface across the island and adjacent coastal waters. Surface high pressure anchored over the SE CONUS is providing moderate NE winds this afternoon into the evening hours. This overall synoptic pattern is expected through the overnight hours into Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 34N71W this afternoon. Primarily gentle to moderate NE to E winds are prevailing across the region generally N of 20N W of 57W. This overall synoptic pattern is supported aloft by a middle to upper level ridge extending over the eastern Gulf of Mexico N-NE to over the SE CONUS. Farther east...an upper level trough extends over the central Atlc with axis extending from 35N56W SW to 28N60W to over the NE Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports the Special Features low mentioned above. A cold front extends from N of the discussion area and becomes stationary near 32N50W to 28N52W then becomes a forming cold front W and SW of the Special Features low to 21N57W. Scattered showers and scattered strong tstms are occurring from 27N-35N between 43W-51W with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring elsewhere N of 19N between 41W-54W. Otherwise...the NE portion of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a cold front extending from 32N15W SW to 28N20W to 26N30W. Possible scattered showers are within 360 nm SE of the boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN