000 AXNT20 KNHC 031048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A surface trough is along 31N48W to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 25N52W, to 18N63W in the Caribbean Sea, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 14N69W in the Caribbean Sea. S to SW gale-force winds are present in the Atlantic Ocean, from 23N to 26N within 120 nm to the E of the 1007 mb low pressure center and trough. Expect sea heights to range from 10 feet to 15 feet. the gale-force wind continues in the forecast for the next 36 hours or so. Please read the High Seas Forecast... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. A deep layer trough passes through 32N56W to 27N58W 20N62W 15N68W 10N69W in NW Venezuela. The trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean Sea, and into NW Venezuela. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the north and northwest of the trough, in the Atlantic Ocean, and in the Caribbean Sea across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 32N between 44W and 52W in the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated moderate from 14N to 19N between 50W and 60W elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong in the Caribbean Sea from 14N to 16N between 65W and 67W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 18N southward between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea also from 18N southward from 70W to 83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal waters of Mauritania near 16N16W to 14N18W. The ITCZ continues from 14N18W to 09N23W 08N30W and 08N48W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 30W eastward, across the area of the ITCZ. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 12N between 10W and 33W, and from 04N to 12N between 39W and 53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 87W/88W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico northwestward to the coastal border of Texas and Mexico. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 27N southward from 94W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico everywhere away from the surface trough that is in the SW corner of the area...to the NE of the line that runs from the deep south of Texas to the Yucatan Peninsula. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KVAF and KMDJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville. MVFR in Alice and at the NAS Kingsville. MVFR in Victoria, Port Lavaca, Palacios, in Bay City. IFR in Conroe. LIFR in Tomball. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lafayette, Amelia/Lake Palourd, and Galliano. LIFR in Baton Rouge. IFR in Hammond. LIFR in Slidell, MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb, in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area, in Gulfport and Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR in Cross City. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 14N northward between Puerto Rico and NW Cuba. This drier air is associated with the upper level trough that extends from the central Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 75W westward, away from the comparatively drier air and the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough that is described in the Special Feature section. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from northern Belize to 15N81W, in the waters that are to the east of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from land to 18N between 84W and land. A second surface trough is along 16N78W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 13N80W, to 10N80W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea also from 18N southward from 70W to 83W. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.07 in Guadeloupe, 0.39 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level northerly wind flow is moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: rain. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N and NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the area for the next 24 hours. Day two will consist of northerly wind flow for the first half of the day. The second half of day two will consist of some northerly wind, and then SW wind flow with a trough to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during day one. Day one will end with an inverted trough spanning the area. Day two will start with the inverted trough across the area. Southerly wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the day, after the inverted trough moves southwestward. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between 30W and 60W, to the east of the deep layer Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Upper level northerly wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the 32N56W- Puerto Rico-10N69W Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. This trough is described in the Special Feature section. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa and 30W. The trough is along 32N24W 02N27W. The trough cuts across the area of the ITCZ. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT