000 AXNT20 KNHC 022342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 742 PM EDT WED NOV 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb surface low is centered near 23N54W and remains supported by a mid to upper-level trough with axis extending from 31N62W to its base over the northeast Caribbean near 15N71W. Global model guidance forecasts this low to move northeast while strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours across the central Atlantic. With this, near gale to gale force conditions are expected in the vicinity of the low starting at around 03/0000 UTC when the low is expected to be centered near 24N53W. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough remains over Africa not reaching the Atlantic waters. The ITCZ extends from 11N16W to 07N30W to 07N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 18W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over northeast Georgia near 34N83W. To the southwest, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N97W to 20N94W. A convergent easterly wind on the southern portion of the trough axis along with diffluence aloft are supporting scattered showers south of 22N between 91W-95W. Similar activity is observed across the northwest Gulf from 25N-28N between 91W-95W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across the basin. These winds will continue through the next couple of days with slightly higher winds, fresh to occasional strong, across the SE Gulf waters and Florida Straits. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moisture associated with an upper-level ridge along with a surface trough analyzed near the Central America coast from 16N87W to 15N83W is providing focus for isolated moderate convection south of 20N west of 82W. A diffluent flow aloft combined with a 1008 mb surface low centered near 15N68W and a surface trough that extends from 15N74W to the low to 18N63W are supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 12N-16N and east of 70W. This activity is affecting the Lesser Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin south of 16N while moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail north of 16N and west of 70W. Expect during the next 24-48 hours for the surface low south of the Mona Passage to move southwest while weakening. Convection will continue over the Lesser Antilles as the upper-level support shift east. Fresh to occasional strong northeast winds will be funneling through the Windward and Mona Passages as well as the lee of Cuba and southeast Hispaniola through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island and adjacent coastal waters at this time. The surface high pressure anchored over the southeast CONUS is providing fresh to occasional strong northeast winds over the area. This synoptic pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over Georgia near 34N83W. Moderate to occasional fresh northeast winds are prevailing across the region generally north of 20N and west of 60W. To the east, an upper- level trough extends over the central Atlantic with axis from 31N62W to its base over the northeast Caribbean near 15N71W. This trough supports the Special Features low/surface trough described above. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 300 nm either side of these features between 44W-59W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis extending from near 31N31W to 20N30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA