000 AXNT20 KNHC 021717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT WED NOV 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low is centered near 20N57W and remains supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough with axis extending from 31N60W to a broad base over the NE Caribbean Sea near 16N69W. Global model guidance indicates the low is expected to move NE and strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours across the central Atlc. With strengthening forecast...near gale to gale force conditions in the vicinity of the low are expected to materialize by 03/0000 UTC as the low centers at that time near 24N53W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the African coast near 10N15W to 10N26W to 05N36W to 06N43W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N-07N between 03W-08W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-12N between 15W-29W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this afternoon with dry and stable NW flow noted on water vapor imagery E of 87W and relatively moist and marginally unstable air within SW flow aloft W of 87W. Beneath the southerly flow...a surface trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf waters from 19N93W to 22N98W. Convergent easterly winds on the east side of the trough axis along with the diffluence aloft is generating scattered showers and isolated strong tstms from 18N-25N between 90W-96W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across South Carolina. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected to continue through Thursday. By Thursday...the ridging to the N shifts eastward into the SW North Atlc waters and a cold front is forecast to impact the northern waters Friday and Friday night with strong NE winds expected in wake of the front through early Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across much of the Caribbean basin this afternoon between an upper level anticyclone centered near 19N86W and an upper level trough with axis extending from 30N60W to a broad base over the eastern Caribbean near 16N70W. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air aloft has filter in over the Greater Antilles and north-central Caribbean waters during the past 24 hours...however moisture associated with the upper level ridging along with a surface trough analyzed along the Central America coast from Belize to NE Nicaragua...is providing focus for scattered showers and isolated strong tstms from 15N-20N between 81W-89W. Much of this convection is enhanced due to the favorable upper level diffluent environment. Farther east...with the upper level troughing in place...a frontal trough extends SW from the Special Feature 1008 mb low centered near 20N57W into a 1009 mb low centered S of Puerto Rico near 16N67W then westward to 15N75W. Scattered showers and isolated strong tstms are occurring mainly along and SE of the boundary generally E of a line from 18N65W to 15N73W to 12N73W. Lastly...with the troughing and broad area of lower pressure influencing the basin...trades continues to be disrupted with overall light to gentle variable winds outside of strong convection. Exceptions are fresh to occasional strong NE winds funneling through the Windward and Mona Passages...as well as the lee of Cuba and SE Hispaniola. These conditions are expected to persist through early Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently NW flow and very dry and and stable conditions aloft prevail over the island this afternoon. Clear skies and fair conditions have filtered in across the island and adjacent coastal waters during the past 24 hours. Surface high pressure anchored over the Carolinas is providing fresh to occasional strong NE winds this afternoon into the evening hours. This overall synoptic pattern is expected through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across the Carolinas this afternoon. Primarily moderate to occasional fresh NE to E winds are prevailing across the region generally N of 20N W of 60W. This overall synoptic pattern is supported aloft by a middle to upper level ridge extending over the eastern Gulf of Mexico N-NE over the SE CONUS. Farther east...an upper level trough extends over the central Atlc with axis extending from 32N59W SW to base over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 16N70W. The troughing supports the developing Special Features low mentioned above. Scattered showers and scattered strong tstms are occurring within 300 nm either side of a line from 28N49W to 16N62W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis extending from near 32N32W to 25N28W to 17N32W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN