000 AXNT20 KNHC 020605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT WED NOV 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough remains inland in western sections of Senegal. The ITCZ is along 05N16W 04N20W. A surface trough is along 29W/30W from 09N southward. The ITCZ is along 03N31W 03N35W 06N40W 07N45W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N southward from 54W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 87W/88W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the east of the line that runs from NW Cuba to SE Louisiana. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 24N southward from 90W westward. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle/SW Mississippi, to the upper Texas coast, to NE coastal Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico everywhere away from the surface trough that is in the SW corner of the area. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMZG, KHHV, and KVQT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR at the NAS Corpus Christi, in Victoria and in Port Lavaca. LOUISIANA: VFR/no ceilings. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Pascagoula. from ALABAMA to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 16N northward between Hispaniola and NW Cuba. This drier air is associated with the upper level trough that extends from the central Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.24 in Guadeloupe, 0.16 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough is cutting across the eastern sections of Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceilings at 02/0200 UTC. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. La Romana: MVFR; few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: thunder and rain have ended for the moment. VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: MVFR. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a trough will linger in the Mona Passage. Expect NW wind flow for the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the western side of the trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the area for during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola, and a trough will be to the east of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 2 days. A ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola, and a trough will be to the east of Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic Ocean to the Mona Passage. A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is in the central Atlantic Ocean, to a 1006 mb low pressure center that is just to the southwest of Puerto Rico. A cold front is about 540 nm to the northwest of surface trough, ending near 29N70W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to 30N between 34W and 41W, and in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 23N between 50W and 70W. High level clouds also cover the area from 14N to 30N between 40W and 70W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa and 30W. The trough eventually extends from 10N30W toward the equator along 36W. A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N13W to 29N18W. It is possible that convective precipitation that is related to this trough also is in the area of the ITCZ. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT