000 AXNT20 KNHC 011631 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 08N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N27W to 06N44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from the 03N-13N between 13W-21W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this afternoon with dry and stable NW flow noted on water vapor imagery E of 88W and and relatively moist and marginally unstable air within S-SW flow aloft W of 88W. Beneath the southerly flow...a surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf waters from 19N94W to 24N97W. Convergent easterly winds on the east side of the trough axis along with the diffluence aloft is generating widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 21N-27N between 92W-97W. Farther east...a localized area of low-level speed convergence is generating a few isolated showers and tstms from 23N-25N between 84W-87W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered across North Carolina. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected to continue through Thursday with slightly higher winds...fresh to occasional strong...across the SE Gulf waters and Florida Straits. By Thursday...the ridging to the N shifts eastward into the SW North Atlc waters and a cold front is forecast to impact the northern waters Friday and Friday night with strong NE winds expected in wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across much of the Caribbean basin this afternoon between an upper level ridge axis extending from over the Yucatan peninsula SE to over northern Colombia...and an upper level trough digging southward with axis currently extending N of Hispaniola near 22N70W to over eastern Cuba near 21N78W. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air aloft filtering in over Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters...however moisture associated with the upper level ridging along with a surface trough analyzed along the Central America coast from northern Honduras to western Panama...is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms S of 20N W of 83W...and S of 13N W of 74W. Much of this convection is enhanced due to the favorable upper level diffluent environment. Farther east...with the digging upper level trough...it supports a 1007 mb surface low centered N of the Mona Passage near 19N67W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring mainly within the eastern periphery of the low across the NE Caribbean N of 15N E of 67W into the central tropical Atlc waters. Elsewhere N of 14N E of 75W isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring as the upper level troughing and mid-level energy continues to promote favorable lifting dynamics to support this convection. Lastly...with the troughing and broad area of lower pressure influencing the basin...trades continues to be disrupted with overall light to gentle variable winds. One exception is that fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds are expected across the far NW Caribbean...lee of Cuba...Windward Passage...and lee of SE Hispaniola are expected to persist through early Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough axis extends N-NW of the island from 22N70W to 21N78W. The upper level troughing supports a 1007 mb low centered near 19N67W however much of the stronger convection is noted east of Hispaniola. However...lingering isolated showers remain W and SW of the low N of 15N between 67W-75W...including interior portions and the adjacent Caribbean coastal waters. An overall drying trend is expected as the upper level trough shifts southeastward during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low noted on water vapor imagery over the western North Atlc with trough axis extending along 32N60W to 25N65W to 21N75W. The troughing supports a weakening and slowly dissipating cold front analyzed from 32N64W W-SW to 30N70W to 30N76W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the front. To the E-SE...a pre-frontal surface trough extends from 32N58W to 27N65W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc remains on the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered across North Carolina near 36N78W with moderate to fresh N-NE winds that are expected to persist through Thursday. The troughing aloft also supports a frontal trough extending from a broad 1011 mb low centered near 29N50W SW along 24N55W to 21N60W into a 1007 mb low centered N of the Mona Passage near 19N67W. Most active convection with this surface trough is occurring east of the boundary...with scattered showers and tstms noted across two areas. One area is from 22N-34N between 34W-48W in association with the 1011 mb low and the other area is from 15N-23N between 46W-67W in association with the 1007 mb low. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered NW of the Azores near 41N34W. The ridge axis extends SE to 30N27W then S to 17N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN