000 AXNT20 KNHC 010601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 09N26W, to 07N32W. The ITCZ continues from 07N32W to 06N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N southward from 40W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in south Texas near 29N100W. Upper level SW wind flow is within about 180 nm of the coasts of Mexico and Texas. An upper level ridge extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to SW Louisiana. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico 24N96W 19N93W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 21N to 27N between 92W and the coast. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery to the N of the line that passes through 23N80W in the Straits of Florida, to SE Louisiana. Surface anticyclonic wind flow from 24N northward from 95W eastward. A shear line is along 26N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, to 23N83W and 22N89W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of the shear line. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: IFR in Hebbronville. MVFR in Victoria and Bay City. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Patterson. LIFR in Galliano. IFR in Boothville, and at the Joint Naval Air Station in New Orleans. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: LIFR in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR in Brooksville. MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Panama along 78W, northwestward, beyond the Yucatan Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. An upper level ridge extends from 78W in Panama beyond the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is within 90 nm of the coast of Central America from 81W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 18N87W near the Mexico and Belize. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N southward from 75W westward. Numerous strong in Honduras and Nicaragua from 13N to 15N between 83W and 86W. Scattered strong from 18N southward from 85W westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N73W in Colombia, to 09N78W in Panama, beyond 09N84W in Costa Rica. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 1.33 in Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola at this moment. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate isolated to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 16N to 21N between 60W and 73W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for PORT-AU-PRINCE in HAITI: VFR/scattered cumulonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: in Barahona... thunder and rain. Santo Domingo: thunder and rain. La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: thunder and rain. cumulonimbus clouds in Santo Domingo. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling, few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will cover Hispaniola for the next 2 days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that NW and N wind flow will move across the area for during the next few days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 2 days. An upper level trough will be to the E and SE of Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is passing through 32N63W to 27N64W 25N69W 24N74W and 23N80W. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery to the N and NW of the trough. A surface trough is along 31N62W 27N66W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N to 32N between 58W and 62W. A cold front passes through 32N68W to 31N74W. A stationary front continues from 31N74W beyond 32N77W. An upper level trough extends from a 29N47W, to 23N51W, 13N57W, to NE Venezuela. A surface trough is along 34N47W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 30N48W, 26N50W 23N52W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 20N66W, across Hispaniola, to SW Haiti. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 27N to 30N between 39W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 20N northward between 39W and 50W, and from 13N to 23N between 50W and 62W. Widely scattered moderate isolated to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 16N to 21N between 60W and 73W. A second surface trough is along 22N47W 17N49W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 15N to 18N between 52W and 55W. An upper level trough passes through 32N14W in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, to 22N23W, to 15N31W, 08N42W, to northern Suriname. A surface trough is along 19N37W 15N38W 13N40W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 17N to 20N between 35W and 37W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between 37W and 39W. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 480 nm on either side of the trough. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 00N northward from 44W eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT