000 AXNT20 KNHC 310503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave has lost it's identity and was dropped from the 31/0000 UTC analysis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 16N17W to a 1010 mb low near 16N19W then continues south along 9N22W to 6N28W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N35W to 4N41W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 180/210 nm along the coast of west Africa south of 13N west of 10W, from the equator to 9N between 20W-26W, and from 7N to just south of the equator between 28W- 38W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... The small upper low noted on water vapor imagery is now centered inland over Texas near Corpus Christi with a narrow upper trough axis extending south across Mexico into the east Pacific region. A weak surface trough remains across the southwest Gulf from 23N97W to 19N94W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm northeast of the surface trough between 20N-22N. A large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder of the Gulf with south to west flow aloft. A surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1023 mb high over Alabama, a 1020 mb high in the west Atlantic, a second 1020 mb high in the north Gulf near 30N87W, and a weaker 1019 mb high over northeast Mexico. A shear line extends across the southeast Gulf through the Straits of Florida near 24N80W along 23N86W to 23N92W. Strong easterly surface flow is north of the shearline and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the shearline to 28N east of 93W including the Florida Keys. These strong winds will persist through midweek. The surface ridge will be reinforced by a stronger high pressure system on Tuesday, maintaining these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean near 14N79W and dominates the entire Caribbean, extending over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a 1009 mb low centered in the northwest Caribbean near 18N85W with a surface trough extending from 20N87W through the low to 15N82W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-22N between 84W-87W and scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm either side of the surface trough east of the low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving west through the southwest Caribbean south of 13N west of 77W. Diffluence across the north Caribbean is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 17N east of 80W from the Leeward Islands to Cuba. The southeast Caribbean is under clear skies tonight. The low will open up to a surface trough overnight. Strong northeast winds will develop Tuesday in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage as the high over the west Atlantic strengthens. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the island tonight. The low north of Puerto Rico will drift south through Tuesday to near the Mona Passage before moving northeast into the central Atlantic. Lingering moisture will persist through Tuesday night giving the island showers and possible thunderstorms. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 25N west of 79W through the Straits of Florida. A remnant cold front extends through 32N58W to 31N61W then dissipates along 29N69W to 28N77W. A surface ridge is over the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high west of Bermuda near 23N67W and covering the area west of the above cold front. A shearline is to the south extending from 26N68W across the Bahama Islands to the Straits of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N80W. A lingering a 1010 mb low is north of Puerto rico near 21N67W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 20N-23N between 64W- 69W. Clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 17N-22N between 53W-63W. A shortwave upper trough is in the central Atlantic north of 27N between 45W- 53W with a weak 1014 mb low near 27N51W and a surface trough extending south to 24N54W. The shortwave upper trough is generating scattered to numerous showers north of 25N between 40W-48W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a surface trough entering the region near 32N18W and extending to 28N22W. A second remnant surface trough extends from 22N31W to 15N34W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of a line from 15N30W to 21N35W. The 1010 mb low will drift south through Tuesday before moving northeast into the central Atlantic. The west Atlantic cold front will move into the central Atlantic Monday. Another cold front will move into the west Atlantic Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW