000 AXNT20 KNHC 301033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands extends from 15N56W to 9N59W moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm either side of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 15N17W along 8N22W to 6N33W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N43W to South America near 5N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N- 7N between 8W-16W, from 2N-10N between 16W-23W, and from the equator to 12N between 23W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is within a 60/75 nm radius of 17N31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A small upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 27N96W with a narrow upper trough axis extending south across Mexico near 24N98W to the southwest coast of Mexico near 17N101W then continues into the east Pacific region. A weak surface trough remains across the southwest Gulf from 23N97W to 19N94W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90/120 nm of a line from the surface trough near 21N96W to 26N90W. A large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder of the Gulf with southwest to west flow aloft. A surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1022 mb high along the South Carolina/Georgia border, a second 1022 mb high in the west Atlantic, and a weaker 1021 mb high over northeast Mexico. Strong easterly surface flow is over the southeast and south/central Gulf. This easterly surface low is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N- 26N east of 85W to over south Florida and including the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida. These strong winds will diminish by this afternoon. Strong northwest winds near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico will diminish this evening. Winds and seas will increase again Monday over the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida in response to the building high over the Carolinas. The surface trough will persist through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean south of Jamaica near 16N77W and dominates the entire Caribbean, extending over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a weakening 1011 mb low centered in the northwest Caribbean near 18N83W with a surface trough extending from 20N87W through the low to 16N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 17N-22N between 85W-87W and from 18N-21N between 75W-79W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are off the coast of Colombia from 10N-13N between 74W-78W. The remainder of the Caribbean is experiencing fair weather this morning. The low will dissipate this morning as the surface trough drifts southwest and dissipates on Monday. Strong northeast winds will develop Tuesday evening in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage as the high over the west Atlantic strengthens. The tropical wave will enter the southeast Caribbean later today and weaken south of Puerto Rico on Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the north coast with lingering isolated showers across the island. The upper ridge is expected to persist through Monday. The west Atlantic surface trough is expected to move west just north of the island tonight, increasing the chances of continuing showers and thunderstorms through Monday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from the Bahamas Islands to over Hispaniola and Cuba west of 70W. Scattered showers are possible across the remainder of the west Atlantic south of 27N west of 65W. An upper trough is over the northwest Atlantic north of 29N supporting a cold front that extends through 32N62W to 30N67W. A surface ridge is over the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high off the South Carolina coast and covering the area west of the above cold front. A remnant surface trough extends from 26N62W through a 1012 mb low near 23N64W continuing south to 19N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm of a line from the surface low to 19N59W. A surface ridge is building south over the central into the east Atlantic anchored by a 1035 mb high about 700 nm northwest of the Azores. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic supporting a surface trough entering the region near 32N21W and extending to 27N25W. A second remnant surface trough extends from 23N26W to 18N31w with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. The west Atlantic surface trough will drift southwest through tonight passing north of Hispaniola and east of the southeast Bahamas by early Monday. The west Atlantic cold front will stall along 26N through early Tuesday. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front late Monday through mid week as the high pressure builds north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW