000 AXNT20 KNHC 300553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N55W to 8N58W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of moderate moisture. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W along 8N21W to a weak 1014 mb low near 6N29W to 6N34W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N42W to 9N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 6N-10N between 14W-18W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 4N-10N between 23W-30W and from 6N- 10N between 30W-33W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 60 nm of a line from 4N14W to 3N25W. A surface trough extends from 23N37W to 16N30W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N-16N between 26W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A small upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 27N96W with trough axis extending south across Mexico near Tampico to the southwest coast of Mexico near 17N101W then continues into the east Pacific region. A weak surface trough remains across the southwest Gulf from 23N97W to 20N92W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm either side of the surface trough west of 94W. A large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder of the Gulf with southwest to west flow aloft. A surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1023 mb high along the North Carolina/South Carolina border, and 1022 mb high in the west Atlantic, a second 1022 mb high over Alabama, and a weaker 1019 mb high over east Mexico. Strong easterly surface flow is over the southeast and south/central Gulf. This easterly surface low is generating scattered showers and widely isolated thunderstorms from 23N-29N east of 95W to the Florida peninsula, including south Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Straits of Florida. These strong winds will diminish through late Sunday. Strong northwest winds near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico will diminish late Sunday as well. Winds and seas will increase again Monday over the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida in response to the building high over the Carolinas. The surface trough will persist through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean south of Jamaica near 17N77W and dominates the entire Caribbean, extending over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a 1008 mb low centered in the northwest Caribbean near 18N84W with a surface trough extending from 20N87W through the low to 15N80W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-21N west of 84W to the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are inland and within 75 nm along the coast of Colombia north of 10N west of 73W. The remainder of the Caribbean is experiencing fair weather tonight. The low will drift south and weaken to just a surface trough on Sunday and then dissipate Monday. As the high over the west Atlantic builds, northeast winds will develop in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage by Late Tuesday. The tropical wave will enter the Caribbean on Sunday and weaken south of Puerto Rico Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the north coast of the island with lingering showers across the island. The upper ridge is expected to persist through Monday. The west Atlantic surface trough is expected to move west just north of the island, increasing the chances of continuing showers and thunderstorms through Monday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm along the north coast of Cuba and Hispaniola west of 70W. Scattered showers are possible across the remainder of the west Atlantic south of 28N west of 67W. An upper trough is over the northwest Atlantic north of 30N supporting a cold front that remains north of the discussion area. A surface ridge is building over the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high off the North Carolina coast and covering the area west of the above cold front. A remnant surface trough extends from 29N60W along 25N62W through a 1012 mb low near 23N65W continuing south to 19N66W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 300 nm east of the surface trough between 22N-25N. A surface ridge is building south over the central Atlantic anchored by a 1036 mb high about 800 nm northwest of the Azores. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic supporting a 1015 mb low just south of the Azores and a surface trough entering the region near 32N21W and extending to 27N26W. The west Atlantic surface trough will move west passing north of Hispaniola and east of the southeast Bahamas by early Monday. The cold front will move south of 31N overnight and stall along 26N through early Tuesday. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front late Monday through mid week as the high pressure builds north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW