000 AXNT20 KNHC 292221 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 09N55W to 18N54W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave remains relatively difficult to track and is based on interpolation and continuity. Subtle 700 mb troughing is noted in global model fields between 51W-58W. No significant deep convection is associated by the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from near 13N17W to 08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N21W to 05N30W to 10N40W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 09W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 21W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A relatively narrow area of upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the western Gulf with axis extending from 30N93W S-SW to an upper level low centered over the eastern Pacific waters near 14N102W. This troughing aloft is inducing a weak surface trough analyzed across the SW Gulf from 16N93W to 24N98W providing focus for widely scattered showers and isolated tstms generally S of 25N W of 94W. Elsewhere to the east of the upper level troughing...south-southwesterly flow aloft prevails with ample middle to upper level diffluence aloft supporting an area of scattered showers and isolated tstms across much of the central and eastern Gulf from 23N-28N between 80W-94W...including the Florida Straits and portions of the Florida peninsula. Aside from convection...a strong pressure gradient exists between surface ridging anchored across the SE CONUS and an area of low pressure across the NW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong east- northeasterly winds are expected to continue across the eastern Gulf through Wednesday with slightly weaker winds...moderate to fresh E-NE winds occurring W of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southerly flow aloft prevails on the western periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the central Caribbean near 16N76W. Within this area...a 1010 mb surface low is centered in the NW Caribbean near 19N85W with a surface trough analyzed NW to the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W and S-SE from the low to 16N82W to 12N81W. As the wind shear across this region remains unfavorable for organized deep convection in the vicinity of the low...scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring to the NE of the low from 18N-22N between 86W-88W...and within 60 nm either side of the trough axis S of 18N. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring across portions of Cuba in association with the upper level diffluent environment. Otherwise...outside of the influence of the area of lower pressure across the western portion of the basin...gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the island with scattered showers and tstms occurring this evening within the northern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the central Caribbean Sea near 16N76W. The favorable upper level diffluent pattern is expected to persist through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level west-southwesterly flow prevails aloft over much of the SW North Atlc this evening. Moisture and cloudiness stretch as far E as 45W on the northern periphery of a broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the central Caribbean Sea near 17N76W. While a frontal boundary has dissipated across the waters within the last 24 hours...a pair of surface troughs are analyzed highlighting areas of low-level moisture convergence. The first is analyzed across the central Bahamas and the other is analyzed from N of Puerto Rico near 20N66W into a 1012 mb low near 22N64W to 30N60W. The most intense convection currently occurring is in the vicinity of the low with scattered showers and strong tstms from 20N-24N between 59W-65W. Elsewhere scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring across the remainder of the discussion waters W of 50W. Much of the eastern-most activity is beginning to come under the influence of a middle to upper level shortwave trough noted on water vapor imagery near 33N63W. This shortwave also supports a cold front analyzed from Bermuda near 32N65W to 31N70W. Finally...across the NE portion of the discussion area...a 1013 mb low is centered SE of the Azores near 36N23W with a surface trough analyzed from 32N22W to 26N28W. Another surface trough is analyzed S of this low pressure area from 15N30W to 23N27W and remains within southwesterly upper level flow on the eastern periphery of an upper level trough axis extending from 24N37W to 09N52W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring mainly from 13N-20N between 24W-32W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN