000 AXNT20 KNHC 291754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 17N52W to 10N53W, moving west at about 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as noted in global guidance and is embedded within an area of moderate moisture. No associated deep convection is observed at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N75W to 10N76W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is located in an area of abundant moisture as noted in TPW imagery. Isolated showers are observed across the northern portion of the wave affecting southwestern Hispaniola and adjacent waters north of 16N between 71W-75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 08N36W to 06N46W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-09N between 10W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is noted on Water Vapor imagery and global guidance centered near 24N96W with its trough axis extending southwest across Mexico then reaching the east Pacific region. A mild diffluent flow aloft prevails east of this low supporting cloudiness and isolated moderate convection across the central and east Gulf mainly south of 27N and east of 94W. The strongest activity is currently affecting the Florida Straits. At the surface, a trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 24N93W to 19N93W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 36N79W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the western and central portions of the basin while fresh to strong easterlies prevail east of 86W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. A large upper-level ridge is anchored south of Haiti near 15N74W and extends across the entire basin. At the surface, a 1008 mb low is centered in the northwest Caribbean near 18N85W with a surface trough extending from 20N86W, through the low, to 16N84W. Isolated showers are observed with these features. The Monsoon Trough extends across the southern Caribbean along 10N between 76W-83W. Scattered showers are along and south of this boundary. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin except south of the low, where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface low to remain nearly stationary while weakening. The tropical wave will lose its identity by Sunday. The next tropical wave will enter the Caribbean by Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Lingering moisture from a tropical wave is supporting isolated showers across southwest Hispaniola and adjacent waters. This activity will dissipate in the afternoon/evening hours. and the persistent upper and surface flows will continue to give the island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. The surface trough north of the Virgin Islands will move west approaching the island by Sunday enhancing convection. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting cloudiness and isolated convection from 23N27N between 70W-80W. A surface trough extends from 25N72W to 22N74W with scattered moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeasterly winds across the western Atlantic mainly west of 75W. To the east, another surface trough extends from 25N63W to 21N64W. Isolated showers are observed along this feature. An area of stratiform convection is noted north of 26N between 56W- 60W in the vicinity of a stationary front located just north of our area of discussion. A surface trough was analyzed west of the Cabo Verde Islands from 19N27W to 15N29W. Scattered to numerous showers are from 14N-19N between 24W-33W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface trough just north of the east tip of Cuba to move west to dissipate. The surface trough north of the Virgin Islands will move west near Puerto Rico and stall over Hispaniola. The strong winds across the west Atlantic will diminish. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA