000 AXNT20 KNHC 291120 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 51W/52W from 10N-17N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of moderate moisture. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 75W south of 18N to inland over Colombia moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with weak 700 mb trough south of 13N and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-18N between 74W-77W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 8N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N29W 8N41W to 9N49W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-6N between 24W-35W. A surface trough extends from 15N34W to 8N38W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 75 nm of line from 13N33W to 16N30W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 9N-13N between 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 25N95W with trough axis extending south across Mexico near Tampico to the southwest coast of Mexico near 17N100W then continues into the east Pacific region. This upper trough is inducing a weak surface trough across the southwest Gulf from near Tampico to 19N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are southwest of the surface trough to the coast of Mexico. A large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder of the Gulf with southwest flow aloft. A surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1026 mb high along the North Carolina/Virginia border and a weaker 1021 mb high over northeast Mexico. Strong easterly surface flow is over the southeast and south/central Gulf. This easterly surface low is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of a line from 24N80W along 24N90W to 26N96W including south Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Straits of Florida. These strong winds will persist through early Sunday. Strong northwest winds will continue near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through late Sunday. The surface ridge will weaken early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean near 15N74W and dominates the entire Caribbean, extending over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a 1008 mb low centered in the northwest Caribbean near 18N85W with a surface trough extending from 19N87W through the low to 17N81W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-21N between 81W-87W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies tonight. The low will drift south and weaken to a just surface trough on Sunday and then dissipate on Monday. The strong winds north of the low will diminish this afternoon. The Caribbean tropical wave will lose it's identity by Sunday. The next tropical wave will enter the Caribbean on Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper ridge anchored over the Caribbean is giving the island westerly flow aloft and coupled with the easterly surface flow is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over Haiti this morning. Lingering moisture and the persistent upper and surface flows will continue to give the island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. The surface trough north of the Virgin Islands will move west across the Dominican Republic Sunday, increasing showers and thunderstorms. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. A dissipating stationary front is draped across the west Atlantic extending through 32N47W along 28N58W to 25N72W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm either side of the front. The combination of westerly flow aloft and easterly surface flow is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of a line from over Cuba near 22N79W to 26N74W. A surface trough extends from 24N73W across the Bahamas to the east tip of Cuba near 20N75W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75/90 nm either side of the surface trough. A second surface trough is north of the Virgin Islands extending from 23N62W to 19N63W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 200 nm east of the surface trough north of 19N. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic extends south to the Canary Islands supporting a 1010 mb low just south of the Azores and a surface trough entering the region near 32N23W and extending to 26N26W. The upper trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm along the coast of Africa from 25N-27N. A weak surface trough is to the south extending from 23N26W to 16N29W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm either side of the trough south of 20N. The west Atlantic stationary front will drift north and dissipate through Sunday. The surface trough over the east tip of Cuba will move west through tonight and dissipate Sunday. The surface trough north of the Virgin Islands will move west across Puerto Rico tonight and stall over Hispaniola on Sunday into early next week. Strong winds will persist across the northern Bahamas through late Saturday and diminish Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW