000 AXNT20 KNHC 290528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N50W to 10N52W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of moderate moisture. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 73W/74W south of 18N to inland over Colombia moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with weak 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are within 60 nm along the north coast of Colombia between 70W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from over Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 7N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N24W to 5N31W. A second monsoon trough is analyzed from 15N28W along 14N33W through a 1013 mb low near 12N35W to 10N28W where a second ITCZ begins and is analyzed along 9N44W to 9N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 7N-10N between 44W-50W and from 10N-13N between 44W-47W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from the equator to 6N between 15W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 26N94W with trough axis extending south across Mexico near Tampico to another upper low centered along the southwest coast of Mexico then continuing into the east Pacific region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 24N-27N between 92W-95W. This upper trough is inducing a weak surface trough across the southwest Gulf from 22N97W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm either side of the surface trough and continuing within 60 nm along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to the Rio Grande. A large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder of the Gulf with southwest flow aloft. A surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1023 mb high over Alabama and a weaker 1018 mb high over northeast Mexico. There is a tight pressure gradient between this surface ridge and the lower pressure over the northwest Caribbean to create strong easterly surface flow over portions of the south and east Gulf. This easterly surface low is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf south of 24N east of 88W including south Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Straits of Florida. These strong winds will persist through Sunday. Strong to near gale force winds will continue near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through late Saturday. The surface ridge will weaken early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean near 14N71W and dominates the entire Caribbean as well as extends over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 20N across Cuba between 78W-82W. At the surface is a 1008 mb low centered in the northwest Caribbean near 19N85W with a surface trough analyzed from the low to 15N79W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-21N between 85W-87W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies tonight. The low and surface trough will persist through early Sunday before gradually dissipating through early Monday. The tight pressure gradient between the low and surface ridge north of the basin will result in fresh to strong winds north of the low through Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper ridge anchored over the Caribbean is giving the island westerly flow aloft and coupled with the easterly surface flow is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the north coast of the island with scattered showers across the remainder of the island tonight. Lingering Moisture and the persistent upper and surface flows will continue to give the island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. A dissipating stationary front is draped across the west Atlantic extending through 32N45W along 28N56W 27N68W to 25N74W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm either side of the front between 51W-71W. The combination of westerly flow aloft and easterly surface flow is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of a line from across Cuba near 22N78W along 24N75W to 25N66W. The north portion of the tropical wave in the Caribbean is now a surface trough that extends from 24N72W to the Windward Passage near 19N74W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm west of the surface trough. A second surface trough is to the east extending from 23N62W to the northern Leeward Islands near 17N63W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm east of the surface trough north of 19N. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic extends south to the Canary Islands supporting a 1010 mb low near the Azores and a surface trough entering the region near 32N21W and extending along 28N23W to 25N30W. The upper trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm along the coast of Africa north of 25N. A weak surface trough is to the south extending from 23N25W to 16N28W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm either side of the trough. The west Atlantic surface troughs will continue to westward through Sunday. Strong winds will persist across the northern Bahamas through late Saturday due to the tight pressure gradient between the lower pressure over the northwest Caribbean and the higher pressure to the north. A cold front will move into the west Atlantic Sunday, weakening the high pressure and diminishing the strong winds. The front will stall from 32N53W along 28N65W to south Florida Monday. 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