000 AXNT20 KNHC 281717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 18N47W to 09N48W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is in an environment of low to moderate moisture as noted in TPW imagery. The convection observed at this time is in the area were the wave meets with the ITCZ mainly south of 11N. A Caribbean tropical wave is moving across central Hispaniola with axis extending from 20N71W to 11N71W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Moderate moisture is noted in TPW imagery in the waves environment. Scattered moderate convection is observed on the northern portion of the wave north of 16N between 69W-72W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N25W to a 1011 mb low pressure center near 12N35W to 10N40W. The ITCZ begins from that point and continues to 10N58W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described above, isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of the Monsoon Trough while scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ between 41W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is developing over the northwest Gulf near 26N93W with its trough extending across the western half of the basin. Cloudiness and isolated showers are prevailing across the central and eastern Gulf mainly east of 92W. An area of scattered light to moderate convection is observed over the Bay of Campeche within 50 nm off the coast of east Mexico south of 23N. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the west Gulf waters while moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevail east of 90W. A similar weather pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the northwestern portion of the basin mainly west of 74W, with strongest activity affecting Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A 1009 mb surface low is near 17N84W with its trough extending from 20N84W to the low to 13N82W. To the east, a shear line extends from 18N76W to 19N73W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the shear line while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Expect through the next 24 hours for the shear line and tropical wave to dissipate. The upper-level ridge will continue prevailing across the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave is moving across the island. Please refer to the section above for details. Upper-level anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the island. Fair weather prevails at this time but scattered moderate convection is expected to reach the island in the afternoon/evening hours. Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic. To the east, a shear line extends from 20N73W to 23N70W while a weakening stationary front extends from that point to 31N48W. Fresh northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data to the north and west of the shear line while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough extends from 21N59W to 18N60W with isolated showers. Across the far east Atlantic, a 1006 mb surface low extends a trough from 32N21W to 28N25W. The shear line is expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA