000 AXNT20 KNHC 281107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 707 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N to 20N between 40W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving across the eastern parts of the Dominican Republic along 70W/71W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible between 66W and 70W. Rainshowers also have been forming, dissipating, and re-forming between 68W and 74W during the last six hours or more. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 16N26W to 13N30W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 13N35W, to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W to 08N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 17N between 19W and 35W, from 02N to 10N between 10W and 30W, and from 07N to 11N between 35W and 54W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is along 92W/93W, from the NW Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the area. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 25N southward from 90W westward, and from 24N to 30N between 88W and 92W. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing upper level S and SW wind flow. The large-scale southerly wind flow is part of a larger-scale area of anticyclonic wind flow, that is associated with a Venezuela-to-Hispaniola-to-Florida ridge. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 90W eastward. A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to coastal Mexico near 21N98W, toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KVQT, KATP, KGRY, KEIR, and KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Edinburg. LIFR in Hebbronville. IFR in Bay City and in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LIFR in Pearland. MVFR in Tomball and in Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MVFR in Lafayette, in New Iberia, and in Patterson. LIFR in Baton Rouge and Hammond and Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Gulfport. LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A deep layer trough passes through 32N55W to 28N56W. A stationary front passes through 32N48W to 27N60W 25N66W and 22N70W. A shear line continues from 22N70W, across N sections of Haiti, across central sections of Jamaica, to the 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 18N84W. A Caribbean Sea surface trough extends from 19N88W at the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 18N84W, to 15N83W and 12N83W. An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 29N49W 24N51W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 15N to 21N at the coast of Cuba between 77W and 82W. This precipitation is occurring in an area of upper level wind speed shear. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 70W westward. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from 11N70W at the coast of Venezuela, toward Hispaniola, toward Florida. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern parts of the Dominican Republic along 70W/71W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible between 66W and 70W. Rainshowers also have been forming, dissipating, and re-forming between 68W and 74W during the last six hours or more. The Monsoon Trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, through southern Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N southward between Colombia and Costa Rica. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.41 in Guadeloupe, and 0.27 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola at this moment, with wind directions from the SW, the west, and the northwest. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area and surrounding coastal waters, approaching from the southwest and west. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds in Santo Domingo. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist of SW and W wind flow moving across the area, with a ridge to the south of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of NW wind flow, as the anticyclonic circulation center, that is associated with the ridge, moves westward. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that the first 12 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast will consist of S and SW wind flow. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the rest of the time of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE wind flow and an inverted trough, followed by anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time. Day two will start with more anticyclonic wind flow for the first half of the day. Expect N and NE wind flow for the second half of day two. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N47W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 08N to 22N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 58W from 17N to 22N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 17N to 21N between 56W and 60W, and from 08N to 12N between 58W and 61W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 40W eastward. Multiple upper level cyclonic circulation centers are to the north of 30N. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 24N northward from 33W eastward. A surface trough extends from a 1004 mb low pressure center that is near 33N24W, to 32N23W 27N24W 25N30W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 30N northward between 18W and 33W. Rainshowers are possible also from 24N between 20W and 30W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 27N northward between 35W and the Atlantic Ocean stationary front and the 29N49W 24N51W surface trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT