000 AXNT20 KNHC 271719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is across the central Atlantic extending its axis from 16N41W to 04N41W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment as noted in TPW imagery. Despite this, no significant convection is observed at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis from 19N67W to 10N67W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Moderate moisture prevails in the wave's environment and a broad 700 mb trough is depicted in global guidance. Isolated showers are observed from 13N-16N between 66W-71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W and continues to 13N28W to a 1010 mb surface low near 10N37W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 09N43W to 08N56W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 09N15N between 19W-40W and from 07N-10N between 44W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends across the whole basin with axis along 92W. With this, a diffluent flow east of the trough's axis is enhancing cloudiness and isolated convection mainly east of 90W. At the surface, a trough extends from 25N91W to 19N91W with isolated showers affecting the Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect through the next 24hours for the upper-level trough to weaken as it drifts northwest. Convection will continue to be a possibility across the southeast Gulf waters supported by a diffluent flow aloft. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. lease refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the western and central portions of the basin mainly west of 70W, with strongest activity affecting Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and the CaymanIslands. A shear line extends from 18N86W to 18N80W to 20N75W. A pair of surface troughs extend from 17N87W to 15N83W and from 13N82W to 10N79W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the shear line while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Expect through the next 24 hours for the shear line and tropical wave to dissipate. A pair of surface lows will develop over the west Caribbean enhancing convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper-level anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the island. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the western portion of the island and adjacent waters. Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 43N72W. To the east, a shear line extends from 20N74W to 21N67W to 23N63W while a weakening stationary front extends from that point to 30N54W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data to the north and west of the shear line while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough extends from 23N55W to 19N56W with isolated moderate convection. Across the far east Atlantic, a 1003 mb surface low extends a trough from 33N22W to 28N25W. The shear line is expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA