000 AXNT20 KNHC 270006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas of Agadir,Casablanca, and Madeira. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/ METAREA2. This is for the forecast that is valid until 27/1200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 14N39W to 04N38W, and has been moving slowly west at 05 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This low level wave is approaching the mean axis of an upper trough, with associated diffluence enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 04N to 10N within 180 nm either side of the wave axis and along the monsoon trough as well. The debris moisture from this convection is advected northeast and east across the Atlc from 10N to 18N to the east of 38W and continues eastward across the African coast. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis from 20N65W to 11N65W, and has been progressing slowly west at 05 to 10 kt during the past 24 hours. A low to mid level trough extends south-southwest across the e Caribbean with diffluence east of its axis enhancing an area of scattered moderate convection from 14N to 17N within 180 nm east and within 210 nm west of the tropical wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends southwest across the African coast at 10N13W to 08N20W, then turns abruptly northwest to 13N20W, then turns southwest through an embedded 1012 mb surface low at 09.5N36W to 08.5N38W, where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues west to 10N54W where it loses identity. Except as previously described near the tropical wave along 39W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 15N between 10W and 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A northeast to southwest orientated surface ridge extends from the Florida big bend to the west-central Gulf of Mexico with a weak inverted coastal trough observed n of the ridge axis along the Texas coast. An inverted heat trough is analyzed s of the ridge axis over the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the southwest Gulf waters where a weak inverted trough was previously analyzed. Similar convection is observed along a north to south line from 26N90W to 22N90W. This convection is flaring in an area of upper diffluence to east of an upper trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Dense upper debris moisture, originating from dissipating convection over the northwest Caribbean, is advected north across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, and then turns east across southern Florida and the Straits of Florida. The ridge will shift north on Thu with a broad low level trough developing across the southwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave and associated convection over the eastern Caribbean is previously described. A shearline extends from Hispaniola to just south of Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. The monsoon trough extends east to west across the far southwest Caribbean between 09N and 11N. An upper ridge extends from Colombia to western Cuba with associated upper diffluence enhancing considerable convection over the west Caribbean to the north of 12N and mainly along 80W. The resultant dense debris moisture covers the entire west Caribbean with narrow bands of these cirrus clouds streaming east across the east Caribbean as well. The tropical wave will continue moving west during the next 24 hours, and may enhance convection over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola especially during peak afternoon heating. ...HISPANIOLA... An east to west shearline extends across the northern Dominican Republic and dissects Haiti from northeast to southwest with mainly moderate showers currently observed along the boundary, but convection will likely become more widespread tomorrow afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the tropics and is previously mentioned. A frontal trough extends from 32N57W to Hispaniola with scattered moderate isolated strong convection within about 240 nm east of the boundary. A broad surface ridge is analyzed west of this dissipating front, with broken to overcast cirriform clouds observed south of 27N. A broad ridge covers most of the area north of 20N and east of the frontal trough with a surface trough analyzed across the tropics from 20N52W to 15N54W, and accompanied by scattered showers within 150 nm either side of a line from 17N46W to 20N53W. A 1002 mb low is centered over the far east Atlantic near 32N18W with a surface trough extending south to 21N22W. Gale-force winds are forecast across the sub-tropical waters east of the low. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Nelson