000 AXNT20 KNHC 261727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas of Agadir,Casablanca, and Madeira. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. This is for the forecast that is valid until 27/1200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 14N38W to 05N37W, moving westward at 05 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in model guidance and prevails in an area of abundant moisture as depicted in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the wave where it meets the Monsoon Trough from 06N-08N between 35W-40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis from 20N64W to 11N65W, moving westward at 05 to 10 kt during the past 24 hours. A 700 mb trough is noted in model guidance with this wave and an area of moderate moisture prevails across the eastern Caribbean. No significant convection is observed with this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the eastern Atlantic waters near 11N16W to 11N28W to 06N40W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 07N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 38W, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 12W-20W and from 06N-13N between 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 36N78W. A surface trough prevails across the Bay of Campeche extending from 23N96W 20N95W. Isolated showers are observed across this boundary. An upper-level trough extends across the southeast Gulf waters, with a diffluent flow to the east of it supporting scattered light to moderate convection across the Yucatan Channel and western Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. A similar weather pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow prevails across the western Caribbean supporting scattered showers between 78W-88W. To the east, a shearline extends from 16N84W to 18N78W to 19N73W. Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevail west of the shearline while gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. The Monsoon Trough extends across the southern waters along 11N between 73W-83W with isolated showers. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west during the next 24 hours enhancing convection over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... A shearline extends over Haiti and the northeast coast of Dominican Republic. Aside from that, fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Scattered showers could develop in the afternoon hours due to daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Please refer tot he section above for details. A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic waters anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 36N78W. To the east, a shearline extends from Hispaniola near 20N71W to 23N66W. A dissipating stationary front extends from that point to 31N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the east of these boundaries mainly north of 20N between 56W-61W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. A surface trough extends from 16N54W to 19N52W. No significant convection accompanies this boundary. Another surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 38N36W. A 1004 mb low is centered over the far east Atlantic near 32N18W extending its trough from the low to 21N23W. Gale-force winds are expected across this area. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA