000 AXNT20 KNHC 261111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 711 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for: the eastern part of MADEIRA, and in AGADIR. This is for the forecast that is valid until 27/1200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 05N to 08N between 33W and 36W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 20N between 55W and 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W 05N20W, 10N31W 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to 06N45W and 14N60W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 03N to 15N between 10W and 40W. isolated moderate from 03N to 14N between 40W and 57W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is along 88W/89W, from the northern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level NW wind flow is on the western side of the trough, and upper level SW wind flow is on the eastern side of the trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, on top of the area of the trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area from 24N northward. Two surface troughs are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N southward from 88W eastward, and from 24N southward from 90W westward. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. IFR in Conroe. MVFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson, and in Robstown. LOUISIANA: IFR in the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA: IFR in Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR in Apalachicola. LIFR in Tallahassee. IFR in Perry. MVFR in the NE part of the Tampa metropolitan area. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. A shear line cuts across the NW corner of Hispaniola, across Jamaica, to 16N84W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 14N northward from 70W westward. The Monsoon Trough is in Colombia from 11N72W, beyond 10N in Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N southward from 72W westward. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.04 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola at this moment. A shear line cuts across the NE section of Haiti. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in Hispaniola, and around the island in its coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: thunder and rain. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area, with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist of SW-to-W wind flow, becoming generally anticyclonic by the end of day one. Expect generally anticyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of NE wind flow moving across the area. Day two will consist of E and SE wind flow moving across Hispaniola. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N64W... A deep layer trough is along 23N64W 18N63W, into the Caribbean Sea near 15N64W. A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N57W to 29N61W 25N65W. A shear line continues from 25N65W, cuts across the NW corner of Hispaniola, across Jamaica, to 16N84W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 14N northward from 70W westward. A surface trough is along 61W/62W from 19N to 26N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 30N between 57W and 65W, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N51W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 05N to 23N between 40W and 60W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 20N between 44W and 50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N19W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 27W and 53W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N northward from 23W eastward. A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 29N18W. A surface trough extends from the Madeira Archipelago to the 1004 mb low pressure center, to 24N19W and 21N24W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 27W and 53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT