000 AXNT20 KNHC 260005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The 24 hour OUTLOOK from 2215 UTC 25 Oct 2016, includes the following: Persistence of easterly near gale or gale over MADEIRA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over the E Tropical Atlc from 05N36W to 13N36W drifting W less than 5 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with an area of deep layer moisture in precipitable water satellite imagery. The integrity of the wave is being disrupted by an upper-level trough to the W near 48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 12N between 30W to 43W. Another tropical wave is located near the Lesser Antilles from 11N62W to 20N60W. The wave is moving WNW around 5 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough. An upper-level trough over the Caribbean to the W of the wave near 66W is sparking scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles from 13N to 17N between 60W and 63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical Atlc near 12N17W to 09N22W to 09N29W to 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40W to 10N54W to 13N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 05N to 14N between 20W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough crosses the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida panhandle near 31N87W to the Yucatan peninsula near 21N89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the trough are occurring farther to the SE over the Caribbean. A surface ridge to the N of the Gulf is generally maintaining moderate to fresh winds W of 90W and fresh to strong winds E of 90W. High pres over the Gulf will be reinforced by stronger high pres building S along the eastern seaboard tonight through the end of the week. This will maintain the stronger winds over the E Gulf and the Straits of Florida which will eventually spread across the central Gulf by the end of the week. Surface troughing is expected to deepen on Thursday over the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds will develop along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico Thursday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A deep layered trough extends S over the W Atlc from 31N69W to Puerto Rico. The trough continues to support a stationary front extending from 31N60W to NW Haiti and surface troughing from Puerto Rico to 27N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 19N to 31N between 59W and 65W. Isolated thunderstorms over the Windward islands are associated with the tropical wave passing the islands. The monsoon trough extends along 10N across the SW Caribbean. The trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies this afternoon. A shearline crosses the Caribbean from Haiti to Jamaica to 17N82W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring along and N of the shearline from 15N to 21N between 77W and 86W. Upper- level troughing over the Yucatan is aiding the convection. This feature will persist through Wednesday night. The tropical wave will continue across the E Caribbean through Wednesday night then weaken as it moves into the central Caribbean Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the island this due to a deep layer trough with an axis just to the E and the central Atlc stationary front that extends to NW Haiti. The front is expected to transition to a shearline tonight. A second cold front heading SE from the United States E coast is expected to merge with the stationary front Wednesday night. This will limit moisture across the island until later in the week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could form during the next few days as the deep layer troughing lingers in the vicinity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layered trough extends S over the W Atlc from 31N69W to Puerto Rico. The trough continues to support a stationary front which extends from 31N60W to NW Haiti and surface troughing extending from Puerto Rico to 27N61W. The surface ridge extending S over the Gulf of Mexico also extends SE over the remainder of the W Atlc W of the above front. A surface ridge covering the central Atlc is anchored by a 1026 mb high N of the discussion area near 37N38W. A deep layered trough over the NE Atlc is inducing a surface trough that extends SW from 1005 mb low pres over the Canary Islands near 29N17W to 20N25W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the area N of 25N E of 22W. The W Atlc front will transition to a shearline S of 25N tonight, then will persist through Wednesday night. Another cold front will sweep across the N portion of the W Atlc this evening and merge with the remainder of the stationary front Wednesday night. This combined boundary will then move E as a cold front due to strong high pres building over the W Atlc Thursday through the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAM