000 AXNT20 KNHC 251746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The 24 hour OUTLOOK from 26 Oct 2016, includes the following: Persistent southeast near gale with threat of locally gale over MADEIRA, AGADIR, and TARFAYA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is along 35W from 6N-14N drifting west less than 5 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave was relocated after looking at 24 hours of satellite, models, and guidance. The energy associated with this wave, is being split by an upper trough to the west. Scattered moderate with embedded clusters of isolated strong convection are from 4N- 12N between 32W-41W. Tropical wave in east Caribbean was relocated east of the Lesser Antilles from 19N59W to 11N61W moving west-northwest near 5 kt over the past 24 hours. After looking at 24 hours of satellite, models, and guidance it was determined this wave has slowed and broadened over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough and is embedded within a surge of moisture. Wave is now beneath and inverted upper trough which is enhancing scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 10N- 15N between 57W-64W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N17W along 9N23W 7N36W to 7N39W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N48W to 12N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 5N-13N between 21W-28W an0 from 5N-10N between 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge covers the Gulf west of 92W anchored off the west coast of Mexico in the east Pacific and extending an upper ridge axis across Mexico and Texas into the central CONUS. A second upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering the Gulf east of 86W. A narrow upper trough is wedged between these upper ridges with a surface trough extending from 24N92W to the northeast Yucatan peninsula near 20N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf anchored by a 1032 mb high over the Great Lakes region with a weaker 1022 mb high over northeast Mexico. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air is moving in from the west covering the Gulf west of 94W. Isolated showers are possible thunderstorms are within 45 nm of a line from 21N95W to northeast Mexico near 25N98W. The remainder of the Gulf is experiencing fair weather this afternoon. High pressure over the Gulf will be replaced by a stronger high pressure that will build south along the eastern seaboard this afternoon through the end of the week. This will increase the winds over the east Gulf and the Straits of Florida that will then spread across the central Gulf through the end of the week. Strong to near gale force winds will develop along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico Thursday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The deep layered trough over the west Atlantic narrows south of 30N extending south to over Hispaniola. This upper trough continues to support a front in the west Atlantic with a shearline extending from northwest Haiti near 20N73W across Jamaica to 16N81W. Wedged between the upper trough over the the Yucatan peninsula and this upper trough is an upper ridge that extends from 14N79W to across Cuba near 22N81W then over the Florida peninsula. Diffluence aloft is generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 200/225 nm of a line from Cuba near 21N78W to Central America near 16N84W including the coast of Nicaragua and the Gulf of Honduras. Showers and thunderstorms over the Windward islands are due to the tropical wave approaching the islands. The monsoon trough extends along 10N across the southwest Caribbean generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N east of 78W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies this afternoon. The shearline will persist through Wednesday night. The tropical wave will move across the east Caribbean through Wednesday night then weaken as it moves into the central Caribbean Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the north coast of the island this afternoon due to a surface trough that extends to the Mona Passage and the central Atlantic stationary front that extends to northwest Haiti. The front is expected to transition to a shearline tonight. A second cold front is expected to merge with the stationary front Wednesday night then left out of the area thereafter. This will limit moisture across the island until later in the week. Afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms could form through Thursday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layered trough covers the northwest Atlantic north of 30N then narrows as it continues south to over Hispaniola. This upper trough continues to support a stationary front that extends through 32N58W along 22N68W to southwest Haiti near 20N73W where a shearline continues into the Caribbean. A surface trough precedes the front extending from 27N71W to the north Mona Passage near 20N68W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the surface trough with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm east of the stationary front. A surface ridge that covers the Gulf of Mexico extends east into the remainder of the west Atlantic west of the above front. A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high north of the discussion area between Bermuda and the Azores. A deep layered trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a surface trough that extends through 32N16W across the Canary Islands along 24N16W to 17N31W. isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the area north of 25N east of 22W. The west Atlantic front south of 25N will transition to a shearline tonight where it will persist through Wednesday night. Another cold front will sweep across the north portion of the west Atlantic this afternoon and evening before merging with the remainder of the stationary front Wednesday night. This combined cold front will continue to move eastward as a strong high pressure builds into the west Atlantic Thursday through the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW