000 AXNT20 KNHC 251108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 708 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 26/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a SE near gale, with the threat of locally gale, in MADEIRA, AGADIR, and TARFAYA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 03N to 10N between 30W and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 17N southward to Venezuela, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 16N between 60W and 64W. A surface trough is along 59W from 10N to 17N. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N to 24N between 56W and 60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 09N20W 08N30W and 07N41W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 05N to 12N between 23W and 28W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 02N to 13N from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate from 14N southward between 10W and 30W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N southward from 05W eastward. Rainshowers are possible from 05N to 10N between 45W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and high level moisture cover the area from 90W eastward. An upper level ridge is in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A comparatively weak upper level trough is along 91W/92W. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb NE Louisiana high pressure center, toward the deep south of Texas, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Scattered to broken multilayered clouds span the area. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Huntsville and Tomball. MVFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. MVFR in Victoria. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Patterson and Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf Shores.FLORIDA: LIFR in Perry. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the east of the Hispaniola-to-13N73W upper level trough. Convective precipitation: numerous strong off the coast of Colombia from 09N to 11N between the Colombia and 78W. Isolated moderate to the south of the numerous strong precipitation, in the Gulf of Uraba. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.71 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Cyclonic wind flow, from an upper level trough, is moving across the area. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 25N between 64W and 75W, around Hispaniola and Cuba, and to the E and SE of the southeastern Bahamas. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo Domingo: thunder and rain. Punta Cana: rain has ended for the moment; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings. Puerto Plata: few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a trough will move across the area at the beginning of day one. The trough will be followed by NW wind flow, and then a ridge at the end of day one. Day two will consist of SW wind flow, as the ridge shifts eastward for all of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that NW wind flow will cover Hispaniola for nearly all of day one. Southerly wind flow will move across the area at the end of day one as an anticyclonic circulation center positions itself to the south of Puerto Rico. SW-to-W wind flow will cover the area for the first half of day two. The rest of day two will consist of some variable wind directions, followed by anticyclonic wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center will position itself to the south of Haiti at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will start with an inverted trough across the area for the first half of the day. The second half of day one will consist of NE wind flow. NE-to-E wind flow will move across the area during day two. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS HISPANIOLA, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N73W... A deep layer trough passes through 32N69W to 28N70W, across Hispaniola, into the Caribbean Sea near 13N73W. A stationary front passes through 32N57W to 29N60W, to 22N70W and SE Cuba. A shear line continues from SE Cuba to 19N78W and 15N83W. A surface trough is to the ESE of the stationary front in the Atlantic Ocean, from 28N60W 24N62W and 19N67W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 19N between 78W and 87W, in the waters. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 25N between 64W and 75W, around Hispaniola and Cuba, and to the E and SE of the southeastern Bahamas. Isolated moderate elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 19N northward between 56W and 73W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is along 25N53W 18N51W 07N46W. It is possible that more than one cyclonic circulation center is embedded in the trough. A surface trough is along 49W/50W from 10N to 18N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 15N to 20N between 44W and 48W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 40W and 50W. High level clouds are being spread northward, from 20N to 35N between 35W and 53W. An upper level trough passes through 32N19W to 27N21W 22N24W and 17N30W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 30W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 25N to 32N between Africa and 24W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward from 53W eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT