000 AXNT20 KNHC 242347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the Central Atlc with an axis from 15N to 06N along 35W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a moist environment with 700 mb troughing evident in model fields between 31W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N between 32W and 37W. A tropical wave is nearing the Lesser Antilles with an axis from 17N to 10N along 50W. This wave is embedded in a moderately moist environment with 700 mb troughing evident in model fields between 64W and 72W. Moderate subsidence is occurring over the wave from ridging to the west of the wave, inhibiting convection along the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 10N15W to 08N32W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N38W to 12N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between the African coast and 32W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 23N between 40W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb area of high pressure is centered over Mississippi and dominates the Gulf of Mexico with generally fair weather and mainly moderate northeast to east winds. Seas of 2 to 4 ft currently cover the majority of the Gulf waters. Through the middle of the week, strong high pressure will build south across the eastern United States. This will increase winds over the eastern Gulf to 20 to 25 kt by Wednesday. Seas across portions of the southeastern Gulf will increase to 6 to 8 ft, with seas to 10 ft possible over the Straits of Florida, particularly along the Gulf Stream. Dry conditions are expected to continue through this time period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line continues to extend from the eastern tip of Cuba to near 16N83W. Northeast winds to around 20 kt are north of this line, with 10 kt northeasterly winds south of this line. Speed convergence along this line combined with deep moisture supports Scattered thunderstorms from 13N to 18N between 76W and 85W. Mainly moderate trade winds cover the remainder of the Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours the shear line will prevail over the same location with showers and thunderstorms. A tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight and enter the Eastern Caribbean on Tuesday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. ...HISPANIOLA... The combination of an upper trough over the Bahamas and a stationary front to the NW of the islands supports scattered showers and thunderstorms. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible through Tuesday as these storms may redevelop over the same locations. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. A surface ridge extends across the western Atlantic west of 65W anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over Mississippi. An upper trough over the western Atlc supports a stationary front from 31N58W to 25N66W to the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N75W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N59W to 19N66W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of either side of the front and trough axis. Northeast winds around 20 kt prevail within 120 nm NW of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlc with an axis from 18N48W to 12N48W and is interacting with an upper trough to support clusters of moderate convection from 14N to 21N between 43W and 48W. High pressure centered near 35N40W dominates the subtropical Atlc between 25W and 50W. Low pressure north of the area over the eastern Atlc supports scattered thunderstorms and a broad area of northerly winds of 20 to 25 kt north of 26N between 22W and 35W. Large swell is currently covering this same area. Over the next 24 hours a re- enforcing front will begin to cross the western Atlc with fresh to strong winds developing behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. The stationary front will continue to persist, before the re-enforcing cold front merges with it by Wednesday. The surface trough supporting convection over the central Atlc will move NW with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ LATTO