000 AXNT20 KNHC 241739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N34W to 06N34W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and coincides with 700 mb troughing S of 13N between 30W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 30W-35W. A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N56W to 09N59W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing between 54W-63W depicted by global models with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 12N. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 07N20W to 08N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N37W to 11N54W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are from 02N-13N between 15W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level shortwave trough progressing eastward over central and eastern Texas and extending across the western Gulf waters along 95W. With this, cloudiness prevails across the basin mainly east of the trough's axis. At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over southwest Alabama near 32N87W. This feature provides mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds across the whole basin. The ridge is forecast to be reinforced by another ridge settling into the Great Lakes region tonight into Tuesday increasing the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in winds increasing into moderate to fresh levels across the eastern Gulf and Florida Straits. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The base of an upper-level trough extends from the western Atlantic over eastern Cuba and a portion of the NW Caribbean mainly north of 15N and west of 70W. This trough supports a weakening stationary front analyzed from 18N85W to eastern Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered light to moderate convection prevails south of the front between 77W-83W. The southern extent of a surface trough is reaching the northeast portion of Puerto Rico near 18N66W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to occasional fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean N of the weakening front while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. During the next 24 hours a tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean with isolated showers. The front south of Cuba will dissipate. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring across northern portions of the island and the adjacent Atlantic coastal waters supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Increased probability of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected through the next 24 hours as the frontal troughing lingers across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge extends across the western Atlantic west of 65W anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over southwest Alabama near 32N87W. A broad upper-level trough is noted in Water Vapor imagery over the SW Atlantic supporting a stationary front that extends from 20N74W to 30N60W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 100 nm on either side of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from 19N66W to 24N64W to 28N60W. Isolated showers are observed along the trough. An upper-level low is reflected at the surface as another surface trough that extends from 17N49W to 14N48W. Scattered moderate convection prevails east of the trough between 43W-47W. A weakening stationary front extends across the eastern portion of the basin from 23N37W to 21N26W to 24N16W. A similar weather pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA