000 AXNT20 KNHC 241044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N31W to 14N32W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave remains fairly low-amplitude and coincides with 700 mb troughing S of 13N between 28W-34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-13N between 26W-34W. Tropical wave extends from 09N59W to 16N55W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing between 51W-61W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 12N. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N27W to 08N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N35W to 08N48W. Scattered moderate and widely scattered strong convection is from 02N-10N between 12W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge is anchored over the Gulf basin this morning with water vapor imagery indicating a middle to upper level shortwave trough progressing eastward over central and eastern Texas. With the ridging in place...overall stable conditions prevail with satellite imagery showing middle to upper level cloudiness over much of the western and central waters due to the approaching trough. At the surface...a ridge continues to be anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs centered over Mississippi and southern Georgia providing mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds across the Gulf this morning. The ridge is forecast to be reinforced by a another ridge settling into the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday increasing the pressure gradient across the region with resulting winds increasing into moderate to fresh breeze levels across the eastern Gulf and Florida Straits. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and a portion of the NW Caribbean supporting a weakening stationary front analyzed across eastern Cuba the Cayman Islands to near 17N85W. Low-level convergence in the vicinity and south of the front along with ample middle to upper level dynamics are supporting isolated showers and possible isolated tstms generally N of 14N between 74W-83W. Overall moderate to occasional fresh NE winds prevail across the NW Caribbean N of the weakening front. Elsewhere...the eastern and central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies with gentle to moderate trades prevailing. These trades are expected to persist through Monday. One exception is the southern extent of a surface trough boundary reaching across Puerto Rico to 16N69W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring across northern portions of the island and the adjacent Atlc coastal waters as maximum middle to upper level diffluence lies to the E of an upper level trough with axis over eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This diffluence along with a weak low-level surface convergence zone is generating the unsettled weather this morning. Increased probability of widely scattered showers and tstms is expected through Monday as the frontal troughing lingers across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North Atlc supporting a cold front extending from 32N58W SW to near the Turks and Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 22N between the front and 55W. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring across Hispaniola and the adjacent coastal waters N of 18N between 64W-73W. W of the cold front...gentle to moderate N-NW winds prevail across the SW North Atlc as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS and Florida peninsula. Farther east...an upper level low is centered near 21N51W and continues to advect tropical moisture northward across portions of the central Atlc. Given the favorable middle to upper level dynamics in place...scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 09N-23N between 38W-48W. This area remains within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored across the central Atlc by a 1026 mb high centered N of the discussion area near 35N40W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a dissipating cold front analyzed from West Africa near 25N15W to 22N25W to 24N36W. With the parent 993 mb surface low centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula near 38N17W...fresh to occasional strong N-NW winds continue filtering in across the NE portion of the discussion area. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary through Tuesday night then begin weakening while drifting SW through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN