000 AXNT20 KNHC 240516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 09N55W to 18N54W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing between 51W-60W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 12N. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N13W to 06N29W to 07N38W. Scattered moderate and widely scattered strong convection is from 02N-08N between 15W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 11W-15W...and from 03N-13N between 26W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge is anchored over the Gulf basin this evening with water vapor imagery indicating a middle to upper level shortwave trough progressing eastward over central Texas and north-central Mexico. With the ridging in place...overall stable conditions prevail with satellite imagery showing middle to upper level cloudiness over much of the western portions due to the approaching trough. At the surface...a ridge continues to be anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle providing mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds across the Gulf. The ridge is forecast to be reinforced by a another ridge settling into the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday increasing the pressure gradient across the region with resulting winds increasing into moderate to fresh breeze levels across the eastern Gulf and Florida Straits. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and a portion of the NW Caribbean supporting a weakening cold front analyzed across eastern Cuba the Cayman Islands to northern Belize near 18N88W. While the front remains fairly precipitation-free...to the SE low-level convergence and ample middle to upper level dynamics are supporting isolated showers and possible isolated tstms within 120 nm either side of a line from the Windward Passage near 20N73W SW to 16N80W to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Overall moderate to occasional fresh NE winds prevail across the NW Caribbean N of the weakening front. Elsewhere...the eastern and central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies with gentle to moderate trades prevailing. These trades are expected to persist through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring across the island as maximum middle to upper level diffluence lies to the E of an upper level trough with axis over eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This diffluence along with a weak low-level surface convergence zone is generating the unsettled weather this evening. Increased probability of widely scattered showers and tstms is expected through Monday as the frontal troughing lingers across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North Atlc supporting a cold front extending from 32N59W SW to near the Turks and Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 22N between the front and 56W. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring across Hispaniola and the adjacent coastal waters N of 19N between 68W-74W. W of the cold front...gentle to moderate N-NW winds prevail across the SW North Atlc as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS and Florida peninsula. Farther east...an upper level low is centered near 22N51W and continues to advect tropical moisture northward across portions of the central Atlc. Given the favorable middle to upper level dynamics in place...scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 10N-22N between 37W-49W. This area remains within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored across the central Atlc by a 1028 mb high centered N of the discussion area near 36N39W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a weakening cold front analyzed from West Africa near 26N15W W to 25N30W then NW to near 30N44W. With the parent 990 mb surface low to the front centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula near 40N18W...Fresh to occasional strong N-NW winds continue filtering in across the NE portion of the discussion area. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary through Tuesday night then begin weakening while drifting SW through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN