000 AXNT20 KNHC 231031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N53W to 19N50W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing between 38W-55W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 12N. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N16W to 07N36W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate and widely scattered strong convection is from 04N-12N between 18W-30W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-17N between 30W-47W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 09W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis extending over the SW North Atlc waters and a broad base over Cuba and portions of the NW Caribbean Sea waters. The troughing supports a stationary front analyzed across the Yucatan Channel from 22N84W to 21N90W to 18N94W. A surface trough extends NW from the front near 19N93W to 21N97W providing focus for isolated showers and possible tstms SW of a line from 23N98W to 19N92W. Elsewhere...high pressure remains anchored across the lower Mississippi River valley focused on a 1023 mb high centered near 33N91W. The ridge will gradually drift eastward across the SE CONUS through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are expected to persist through Sunday gradually veering NE to E Sunday late into early Monday then mostly E on Monday as the ridge merges with another ridge anchored across the Great Lakes region. CARIBBEAN SEA... The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and the NW Caribbean supporting a cold front analyzed across western Cuba and becoming stationary across the Yucatan Channel. To the SE...a pre-frontal surface trough or low-level convergence zone is noted from 22N69W SW to the Windward Passage to SW of Jamaica near 16N79W. The cold front lacks any significant moisture and precipitation...however scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the surface trough boundary. Overall gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail across the NW Caribbean S of the weakening front. Across the SW Caribbean...the Monsoon Trough axis extends along 09N from Costa Rica eastward across central Panama to northern Colombia. The axis is providing focus for scattered showers and isolated strong tstms S of 12N. Elsewhere...the eastern and central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies this morning with moderate to fresh trades prevailing. These trades are expected to persist through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring across the island as a surface trough is analyzed to the NW from 22N69W to the Windward Passage region to across Jamaica. The boundary is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough over the SW North Atlc and portions of the NW Caribbean Sea. Increased probability of scattered showers and tstms is expected through Sunday as the troughing lingers across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North Atlc supporting a cold front extending from 32N65W near Bermuda SW to the central Bahamas then to western Cuba. A pre-frontal trough or low-level convergence zone is noted from near 30N64W to 25N66W to the Windward Passage region near 20N73W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally east of the boundary between 60W- 70W. W of the cold front...moderate to occasional fresh N-NW winds filter in across the SW North Atlc as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc currently is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb high centered N of the discussion area near 38N39W. One exception is a cold front analyzed from near 32N11W W-SW to 28N26W to 29N35W then stationary to 32N44W. Possible isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN