000 AXNT20 KNHC 230523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 08N51W to 17N51W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing between 43W-55W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 11N. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-15N between 42W-54W. The convection is also enhanced due to an upper level trough axis extending from 20N50W to 10N55W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N18W to 07N35W to 08N40W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave along 51W...scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-13N between 19W-41W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-13N between 10W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis extending over the SW North Atlc waters with a broad base over portions of Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea waters. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed across the Yucatan Channel from 22N85W to 22N90W then stationary to 22N94W to the southern Mexico coast near 18N94W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the SW Gulf waters generally S of 22N W of 92W in association with the front. Elsewhere...high pressure remains anchored across the lower Mississippi River valley focused on a 1022 mb high centered near 32N91W. The ridge will gradually drift eastward across the SE CONUS through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are expected to persist through Sunday gradually veering NE to E Sunday late into early Monday then mostly E on Monday as the ridge shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and the NW Caribbean supporting a cold front analyzed across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. To the SE...a pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed across the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba reaching to 20N78W. Both boundaries remain mostly precipitation-free with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters from 16N-19N between 75W-79W. Overall gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail across the NW Caribbean S of the weakening front. Across the SW Caribbean...the Monsoon Trough axis extends along 09N from Costa Rica eastward across central Panama to northern Colombia. The axis is providing focus for scattered showers and isolated strong tstms S of 12N. Elsewhere...the eastern and central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies this evening with moderate to fresh trades prevailing. These trades are expected to persist through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring across the island as a surface trough is analyzed to the NW across the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The boundary is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough over the SW North Atlc and portions of the NW Caribbean Sea. Increased probability of scattered showers and tstms is expected through Sunday as the troughing lingers across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North Atlc supporting a cold front extending from 32N65W near Bermuda SW to the central Bahamas then to western Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from the front near 30N66W to the SE Bahamas then to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring generally east of the boundaries between 61W-71W. W of the cold front...moderate to occasional fresh N-NW winds filter in across the SW North Atlc as high pressure anchored itself across the SE CONUS. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc currently is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1032 mb high centered N of the discussion area near 40N39W. One exception is a cold front analyzed from near 32N15W W-SW to 29N26W to 32N41W. Possible isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN